Dayana Yastremska vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇦Dayana Yastremska
#103 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
7 meetings · sets 5–12
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Dayana Yastremska and Jasmine Paolini have met 7 times since 2021; Jasmine Paolini leads 6–1. Their first meeting came at Courmayeur Ladies Open - Courmayeur in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Paolini leads 3–1. On clay courts Paolini leads 3–0. Paolini has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Yastremska has taken 5 sets to Paolini's 12. Their most recent meeting: Jasmine Paolini won at French Open - Paris (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Yastremska | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Dayana Yastremska | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 14/19 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 15/42 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 7/21 | 33% | 10/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 13/20 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 71% | 12/17 | 14% | 1/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 78% | 18/23 | 78% | 14/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 14/23 | 56% | 10/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Yastremska 1, Paolini 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Yastremska
💥 Big Hitter
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,247 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
May 25, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Jul 20, 2023
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 18, 2023
Firenze Ladies Open - Florence
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 12, 2022
Transylvania Open - Cluj-Napoca
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 4, 2022
Open 6 Sens - Lyon
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 7, 2021
Upper Austria Ladies Linz - Linz
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 29, 2021
Courmayeur Ladies Open - Courmayeur
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–4 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.17 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | -14.7% | -36.5% |
| Units P/L | -0.88u | -1.46u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 3 | 1 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Yastremska and Paolini posted a 30% win rate.
| Opponent | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Lucrezia Stefanini | L 36 64 16 | W 64 61 |
| Tatjana Maria | L 16 26 | L 46 36 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 57 64 57 | W 64 46 63 |
| Ajla Tomljanovic | L 64 46 57 | W 75 57 61 |
| Solana Sierra | W 63 75 | L 63 46 36 |
| Belinda Bencic | L 26 76 36 | L 46 36 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | L 46 46 | L 75 26 57 |
| Talia Gibson | W 76 76 | L 57 62 16 |
| Cristina Bucsa | W 64 46 76 | L 57 46 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 75 26 36 | L 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sinja Kraus
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maja Chwalinska
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Caty Mcnally
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Janice Tjen
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 1st Round
Aug 25
Tatjana Maria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Aoi Ito
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–42 matches
| Metric | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 45% | 51% |
| Sets won | 48% | 48% |
| Games won | 48% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 4 |
| WTA 125 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 3 |
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