Dayana Yastremska vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇦Dayana Yastremska
#112 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
37 meetings · sets 5–12
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8wDayana Yastremska and Jasmine Paolini have met 7 times since 2021; Jasmine Paolini leads 6–1. Their first meeting came at Courmayeur Ladies Open - Courmayeur in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Paolini leads 3–1. On clay courts Paolini leads 3–0. Paolini has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Yastremska has taken 5 sets to Paolini's 12. Their most recent meeting: Jasmine Paolini won at French Open - Paris (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Yastremska | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Dayana Yastremska | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 12/17 | 54% | 14/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 9/22 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 14/39 | 38% | 17/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 37% | 7/19 | 36% | 12/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 11/19 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 71% | 12/17 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 76% | 16/21 | 81% | 17/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 12/21 | 67% | 14/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Yastremska 1, Paolini 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Yastremska
💥 Big Hitter
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,181 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
May 25, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Jul 20, 2023
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 18, 2023
Firenze Ladies Open - Florence
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 12, 2022
Transylvania Open - Cluj-Napoca
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 4, 2022
Open 6 Sens - Lyon
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 7, 2021
Upper Austria Ladies Linz - Linz
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 29, 2021
Courmayeur Ladies Open - Courmayeur
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Yastremska | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Dayana Yastremska | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| 1 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 5 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 4–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.79 | 2.18 |
| ROI % | -51.6% | +35.3% |
| Units P/L | -4.13u | +2.12u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 1,304 mi · 2,098 km | — |
| Route | POL → AUT | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Yastremska and Paolini posted a 30% win rate.
| Opponent | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Tatjana Maria | L 16 26 | L 46 36 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 57 64 57 | W 64 46 63 |
| Ajla Tomljanovic | L 64 46 57 | W 75 57 61 |
| Solana Sierra | W 63 75 | L 63 46 36 |
| Belinda Bencic | L 26 76 36 | L 46 36 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | L 46 46 | L 75 26 57 |
| Talia Gibson | W 76 76 | L 57 62 16 |
| Cristina Bucsa | W 64 46 76 | L 57 46 |
| Elina Svitolina | L 16 46 | W 36 64 64 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 75 26 36 | L 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Janice Tjen
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 1st Round
Aug 25
Tatjana Maria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Aoi Ito
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Alicia Dudeney
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · 1st Round
Jun 16
Ajla Tomljanovic
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 2nd Round
Jun 12
Sara Bejlek
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 1st Round
Jun 9
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–45 matches
| Metric | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 58% |
| Sets won | 47% | 53% |
| Games won | 48% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 4 |
| WTA 125 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Yastremska | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 3 |
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