Daria Kasatkina vs Jelena OstapenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#82 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
7 meetings · sets 8–10
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Jelena Ostapenko have met 7 times since 2016; Jelena Ostapenko leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at Eastbourne in 2016 on grass. On grass courts Ostapenko leads 3–0. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Ostapenko has won the last 4 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 8 sets to Ostapenko's 10. Their most recent meeting: Jelena Ostapenko won at Adelaide International - Adelaide (2024).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Wuhan Open - Wuhan
- Level
- WTA 1000
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 12 · 10:00 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 2.08 or longer, Daria Kasatkina has won 42 of 103 (41%). That is level with the 39% the price implied.
At 1.74 or shorter, Jelena Ostapenko has won 117 of 164 (71%). The price implied 62%, so Jelena Ostapenko has beaten it by 9 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Jelena Ostapenko and Daria Kasatkina meet in the first round of the Wuhan Open on October 12 on hard court. Ostapenko, ranked 34th, comes in having won two matches in the past two weeks but dropped her last outing. Kasatkina sits at 82nd and arrives on a two-match winning streak after three matches in fourteen days.
Ostapenko leads the head-to-head 6-2 over eight meetings. Both players carry identical records on hard court, each at 10-10 in recent hard-court play. Kasatkina has found form this week, while Ostapenko is searching for consistency after a 2-3 run in her last five matches; Kasatkina has also won 2 of 5. Against common opponents, Ostapenko's record has been stronger, posting victories over Anna Kalinskaya, Paula Badosa, and Simona Waltert where Kasatkina stumbled.
Ostapenko's power game relies on early dominance and aggressive striking from the baseline. Kasatkina prefers to construct points with movement and reactive shot-making, waiting for openings. The match will test whether Ostapenko can sustain the aggressive pace needed to keep Kasatkina from settling into rhythm, or whether Kasatkina's counterpunching can disrupt Ostapenko's timing and force long rallies.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 11/21 | 71% | 17/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 51% | 21/41 | 40% | 17/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 9/29 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 5/14 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 69% | 18/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 11/18 | 65% | 17/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 2, Ostapenko 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,733 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jelena Ostapenko.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jan 13, 2024
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · Final
May 15, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Jul 1, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jun 24, 2021
Eastbourne International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Aug 30, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Apr 9, 2017
Charleston
C Clay · Final
Jun 22, 2016
Eastbourne
G Grass · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| 1 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 100% | 6/6 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 83% | 5/6 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.20 | 1.89 |
| ROI % | -31.7% | -34.0% |
| Units P/L | -3.49u | -2.04u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | 1,246 mi · 2,005 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | POR → ROU → CZE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ostapenko has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Kasatkina's 25%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elise Mertens | W 64 60 | L 26 63 36 |
| Paula Badosa | L 64 67 46 | W 76 75 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 62 | W 64 61 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 62 67 36 | W 63 60 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | L 46 16 | W 61 62 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | L 46 46 |
| Anastasia Potapova | L 57 64 46 | L 64 46 46 |
| Simona Waltert | L 67 63 46 | W 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Viktorija Golubic
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Paula Badosa
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–42 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 57% |
| Sets won | 51% | 57% |
| Games won | 51% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 3 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 3 |