Daria Kasatkina vs Jelena OstapenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#59 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
7 meetings · sets 8–10
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#31 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Jelena Ostapenko have met 7 times since 2016; Jelena Ostapenko leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at Eastbourne in 2016 on grass. On grass courts Ostapenko leads 3–0. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Ostapenko has won the last 4 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 8 sets to Ostapenko's 10. Their most recent meeting: Jelena Ostapenko won at Adelaide International - Adelaide (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 68% | 15/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 41% | 16/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 7/25 | 55% | 12/22 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 7/10 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 11/15 | 70% | 16/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 9/15 | 65% | 15/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 2, Ostapenko 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Ostapenko
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 56% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 6,005 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jelena Ostapenko.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jan 13, 2024
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · Final
May 15, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Jul 1, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jun 24, 2021
Eastbourne International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Aug 30, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Apr 9, 2017
Charleston
C Clay · Final
Jun 22, 2016
Eastbourne
G Grass · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| 1 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | -51.7% | -7.7% |
| Units P/L | -5.17u | -0.54u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ostapenko has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Kasatkina's 0%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 62 67 36 | W 63 60 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | L 46 16 | W 61 62 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | L 46 46 |
| Anastasia Potapova | L 57 64 46 | L 64 46 46 |
| Simona Waltert | L 67 63 46 | W 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anna Kalinskaya
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Mingge Xu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Mccartney Kessler
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Antonia Ruzic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Harriet Dart
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Zeynep Sonmez
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Panna Udvardy
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Francesca Jones
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Magda Linette
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–39 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 43% | 56% |
| Sets won | 47% | 56% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 3 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 3 |
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