Caroline Garcia vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇫🇷Caroline Garcia
Unranked · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
53w5 meetings · sets 2–8
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Caroline Garcia and Madison Keys have met 5 times since 2016; Madison Keys leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Wuhan in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 3–1. Across all meetings Garcia has taken 2 sets to Keys's 8. Their most recent meeting: Caroline Garcia won at WTA Elite Trophy - Zhuhai (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Garcia | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Caroline Garcia | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | — | 75% | 24/32 | |
| Wins a set when losing | — | 53% | 8/15 | |
| Goes to a deciding set | — | 34% | 16/47 | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | — | 59% | 22/37 | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 38% | 3/8 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 45% | 5/11 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | — | 83% | 25/30 | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | — | 80% | 24/30 | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Garcia 1, Keys 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Garcia
🤖 Servebot
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Oct 25, 2023
WTA Elite Trophy - Zhuhai
H Hard · Round Robin
Feb 21, 2023
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 26, 2022
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 18, 2018
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Sep 28, 2016
Wuhan
H Hard · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Garcia | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.44 |
| ROI % | - | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | - | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Garcia | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | — | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 25
Karolina Muchova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 10
Sonay Kartal
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 8
Bernarda Pera
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 26
Iga Swiatek
Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round
Mar 21
Anna Bondar
Miami Open - Miami · 1st Round
Mar 19
Iga Swiatek
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 2nd Round
Mar 7
Bernarda Pera
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 1st Round
Mar 5
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–47 matches
| Metric | Garcia | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | - | 68% |
| Sets won | - | 65% |
| Games won | - | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Garcia | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| WTA Finals | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Garcia | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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