Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Learner TienPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Learner Tien have met 2 times since 2025; Learner Tien leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Tien leads 2–0. Tien has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 2 sets to Tien's 5. Their most recent meeting: Learner Tien won at Brisbane International - Brisbane (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Tien | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Learner Tien | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 39% | 18/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 89% | 25/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 57% | 16/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 0, Tien 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Tien
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Learner Tien.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 4, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 14, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Tien | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Learner Tien | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 81% | 13/16 |
| 3 or more | 64% | 7/11 | 56% | 9/16 |
| 5 or more | 64% | 7/11 | 38% | 6/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–8 | 11–8 |
| Avg odds | 3.21 | 1.72 |
| ROI % | -36.3% | -8.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.99u | -1.66u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | GBR → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tien has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Carabelli's 30%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 64 67 57 | L 76 57 67 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 76 16 57 | L 67 36 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 76 16 46 | W 63 26 107 |
| Karen Khachanov | W 63 64 | L 57 64 76 16 46 |
| Gael Monfils | W 63 64 | W 63 64 63 |
| Moez Echargui | L | W 76 63 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 76 76 | L 46 64 46 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 67 26 | W 63 76 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 36 36 | W 64 67 76 |
| Daniel Merida | L 64 63 26 03 | W 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Casper Ruud
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Zachary Svajda
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 27
Flavio Cobolli
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Jiri Lehecka
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CZE-USA · Rubber 5
Sep 19
Jakub Mensik
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CZE-USA · Rubber 1
Sep 18
Karen Khachanov
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 8
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–65 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 66% |
| Sets won | 47% | 60% |
| Games won | 48% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
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