Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Learner TienPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Learner Tien have met 2 times since 2025; Learner Tien leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Tien leads 2–0. Tien has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 2 sets to Tien's 5. Their most recent meeting: Learner Tien won at Brisbane International - Brisbane (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Tien | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Learner Tien | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 13/21 | 50% | 16/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 6/22 | 38% | 6/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/43 | 46% | 22/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 46% | 13/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 46% | 13/28 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 77% | 17/22 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 14/16 | 92% | 24/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 0, Tien 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Tien
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,211 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Learner Tien.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 4, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 14, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Tien | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Learner Tien | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 83% | 10/12 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 67% | 8/12 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–4 | 7–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.47 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | -14.6% |
| Units P/L | -1.58u | -1.75u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 7 |
| Distance | 1,959 mi · 3,153 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA → MEX | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tien has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Carabelli's 30%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | W 76 76 | L 46 64 46 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 67 26 | W 63 76 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 36 36 | W 64 67 76 |
| Gael Monfils | W 63 64 | W 63 06 63 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 67 46 | W 63 36 76 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 26 62 36 | L 57 46 |
| Marton Fucsovics | L 67 16 26 | L 76 46 67 36 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 76 16 46 | L 26 26 36 |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | W 57 64 76 | W 75 46 36 76 63 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 61 36 67 | L 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Titouan Droguet
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 20
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Pablo Carreno Busta
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Marko Topo
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Sebastian Baez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Daniel Merida Aguilar
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Thiago Agustin Tirante
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 9
Tommy Paul
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Gael Monfils
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Adrian Mannarino
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–63 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 68% |
| Sets won | 47% | 61% |
| Games won | 48% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.