Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Hugo GastonPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Hugo Gaston have met 1 time since 2025; Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads 1–0. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 2 sets to Gaston's 0. Their most recent meeting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won at ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Gaston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Hugo Gaston | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 66% | 21/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 39% | 9/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 36% | 20/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 47% | 16/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 61% | 11/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 83% | 24/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 1, Gaston 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 708 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Apr 5, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Gaston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Hugo Gaston | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–7 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 3.43 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | -47.1% | -2.1% |
| Units P/L | -4.24u | -0.30u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 103 mi · 165 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Gaston has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Carabelli's 50%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 61 36 67 | L 76 67 16 |
| Federico Cina | L 36 26 | W 75 64 |
| Guido Ivan Justo | W 61 60 | W 75 63 |
| Luca Van Assche | W 06 63 62 | L 46 46 |
| Moez Echargui | L | W 61 57 62 64 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 67 46 | L 36 46 |
| Titouan Droguet | L 06 63 46 | W 60 63 |
| Marko Topo | W 67 76 63 | W 61 62 |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | W 57 64 76 | W 57 76 75 |
| Gael Monfils | W 63 64 | W 62 63 36 26 60 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Liam Draxl
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Jaime Faria
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Sho Shimabukuro
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Colton Smith
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Andre Ilagan
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Guido Ivan Justo
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–60 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 57% |
| Sets won | 47% | 54% |
| Games won | 48% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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