Bernard Tomic vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Bernard Tomic and Matteo Arnaldi have met 1 time since 2026; Matteo Arnaldi leads 1–0. Across all meetings Tomic has taken 0 sets to Arnaldi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tomic | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Bernard Tomic | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 19/33 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 10/25 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 24/58 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 12/22 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 12/27 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 23/28 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 19/28 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tomic 0, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tomic
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Oct 8, 2026
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tomic | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Bernard Tomic | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 96% | 23/24 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 3 or more | 79% | 19/24 | 89% | 8/9 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 17/24 | 67% | 6/9 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 8/24 | 11% | 1/9 |
| 15 or more | 4% | 1/24 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tomic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 18–7 | 3–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.90 | 3.11 |
| ROI % | +27.2% | -35.4% |
| Units P/L | +6.80u | -3.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tomic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 4 | 2 |
| Matches | 11 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,578 mi · 2,540 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Matteo Arnaldi
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Timofey Skatov
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Terence Atmane
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Yuta Shimizu
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Fajing Sun
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Fajing Sun
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Rigele Te
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Pavel Kotov
Guangzhou Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 19
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–58 matches
| Metric | Tomic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 52% |
| Sets won | 54% | 50% |
| Games won | 51% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tomic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tomic | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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