Anastasia Potapova vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Anastasia Potapova
#25 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 3–5
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8wAnastasia Potapova and Jasmine Paolini have met 3 times since 2024; Jasmine Paolini leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Paolini leads 2–1. Paolini has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Potapova has taken 3 sets to Paolini's 5. Their most recent meeting: Jasmine Paolini won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Potapova | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Anastasia Potapova | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 15/26 | 54% | 14/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 4/15 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 15/41 | 38% | 17/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 41% | 9/22 | 36% | 12/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 12/19 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 17/19 | 81% | 17/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 15/19 | 67% | 14/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Potapova 0, Paolini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Potapova
👑 The Complete Package
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 821 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 6, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 15, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 12, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Potapova | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Anastasia Potapova | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| 1 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 3 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Potapova | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 4–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.73 | 2.18 |
| ROI % | -47.9% | +35.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.83u | +2.12u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Potapova | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | — |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Potapova has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs Paolini's 22%).
| Opponent | Potapova | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Elina Svitolina | L 16 16 | W 36 64 64 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 26 61 16 | L 36 26 |
| Coco Gauff | W 46 76 64 | L 36 26 |
| Katie Boulter | W 57 64 62 | W 06 63 63 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 67 26 | L 26 36 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 64 | L 36 26 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 46 64 64 | L 75 26 57 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | W 63 75 | L 26 26 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 67 67 | L 36 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Elena Gabriela Ruse
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Diana Shnaider
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Venus Williams
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Suzan Lamens
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 1st Round
Jun 10
Anna Kalinskaya
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
Jun 1
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–45 matches
| Metric | Potapova | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 58% |
| Sets won | 58% | 53% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Potapova | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Potapova | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
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