Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aliaksandra Sasnovich
#136 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
6w5 meetings · sets 3–9
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Naomi Osaka have met 5 times since 2016; Naomi Osaka leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Tokyo in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 3–1. Across all meetings Sasnovich has taken 3 sets to Osaka's 9. Their most recent meeting: Aliaksandra Sasnovich won at China Open - Beijing (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sasnovich | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 40% | 4/10 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 25% | 4/16 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 10/26 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 25% | 3/12 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 36% | 5/14 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 13% | 1/8 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 56% | 5/9 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 44% | 4/9 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sasnovich 0, Osaka 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sasnovich
🎾 All-Court
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎾 All-Court vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 958 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Sep 27, 2025
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 14, 2019
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
May 9, 2019
Madrid
C Clay · Round of 16
Aug 29, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 23, 2016
Tokyo
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sasnovich | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 3/3 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 0% | 0/3 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/3 | 81% | 13/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/3 | 6% | 1/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/3 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/3 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.75 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | -47.4% | +7.9% |
| Units P/L | -3.79u | +1.27u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 350 mi · 563 km |
| Route | — | AUT → CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs Sasnovich's 20%).
| Opponent | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Eala | L 62 46 67 | L 46 26 |
| Karolina Muchova | L 26 46 | L 67 46 |
| Magdalena Frech | L 76 46 67 | W 64 61 |
| Talia Gibson | W 64 60 | L 57 46 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 67 | W 63 46 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Maria Timofeeva
Livesport Prague Open - Prague · 1st Round
Jul 21
Tereza Valentova
Athens Open - Athens · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Anna Blinkova
Athens Open - Athens · 1st Round
Jul 14
Bianca Andreescu
Wimbledon
Jun 25
Storm Hunter
Wimbledon
Jun 24
Katy Dunne
Wimbledon
Jun 23
Magdalena Frech
Berlin
Jun 13
Storm Hunter
Queen's Club
Jun 7
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Elise Mertens
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Panna Udvardy
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Karolina Muchova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 26–44 matches
| Metric | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 38% | 73% |
| Sets won | 39% | 67% |
| Games won | 48% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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