Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aliaksandra Sasnovich
#118 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 3–9
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Naomi Osaka have met 5 times since 2016; Naomi Osaka leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Tokyo in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 3–1. Across all meetings Sasnovich has taken 3 sets to Osaka's 9. Their most recent meeting: Aliaksandra Sasnovich won at China Open - Beijing (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sasnovich | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 77% | 24/31 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 7/26 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 14/57 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 19/39 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 39% | 7/18 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 25% | 3/12 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 28/35 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 69% | 24/35 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sasnovich 0, Osaka 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sasnovich
👑 The Complete Package
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Sep 27, 2025
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 14, 2019
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
May 9, 2019
Madrid
C Clay · Round of 16
Aug 29, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 23, 2016
Tokyo
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sasnovich | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 46% | 6/13 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.08 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -24.6% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.44u | -1.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 9 | 3 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Sasnovich's 33%).
| Opponent | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova | L 26 46 | L 57 61 67 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 16 46 | W 62 62 |
| Maria Timofeeva | L 36 46 | W 63 36 63 |
| Talia Gibson | W 61 64 | L 57 46 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 75 60 | W 61 63 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 62 46 67 | L 46 26 |
| Magdalena Frech | L 76 46 67 | W 64 61 |
| Anhelina Kalinina | W 63 62 | W 61 63 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 67 | W 63 46 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elvina Kalieva
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Linda Fruhvirtova
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Xinxin Yao
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · 1st Round
Oct 5
Ekaterina Alexandrova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Talia Gibson
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Varvara Lepchenko
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Junhan Zhang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Mirra Andreeva
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–57 matches
| Metric | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 54% | 75% |
| Sets won | 54% | 68% |
| Games won | 53% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sasnovich | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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