Alexander Zverev vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Zverev and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2025; Alexander Zverev leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Zverev leads 3–0. Zverev has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Zverev has taken 6 sets to Arnaldi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Alexander Zverev won at Erste Bank Open - Vienna (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Zverev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Zverev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 30/44 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 8/17 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 22/61 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 29/52 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 25% | 2/8 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 23/33 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 39/46 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 30/46 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Zverev 1, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Zverev
💥 Big Hitter
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Alexander Zverev and Matteo Arnaldi are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 23, 2025
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 31, 2025
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 3rd Round
Feb 25, 2025
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Zverev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Zverev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 61% | 11/18 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 33% | 6/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–4 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.19 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | -6.8% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | -1.35u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Zverev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Arnaldi's 40%).
| Opponent | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Quentin Halys | W 64 67 63 | L 63 16 67 36 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 64 64 62 | L 57 46 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 46 67 76 76 57 | L 67 16 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 62 67 911 | W 46 76 64 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 76 26 46 | L 63 46 36 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | W 64 75 | L |
| Raphael Collignon | W 76 76 | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 63 76 | L 76 46 46 |
| Vit Kopriva | W 63 46 62 | W 26 63 62 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 63 64 | W |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Quentin Halys
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Yibing Wu
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Cameron Norrie
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Learner Tien
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 27
Alex de Minaur
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Dino Prizmic
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, GER-CRO · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–88 matches
| Metric | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 78% | 52% |
| Sets won | 72% | 50% |
| Games won | 56% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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