Alexander Zverev vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Zverev and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2025; Alexander Zverev leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Zverev leads 3–0. Zverev has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Zverev has taken 6 sets to Arnaldi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Alexander Zverev won at Erste Bank Open - Vienna (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Zverev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Zverev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 27/41 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 37% | 7/19 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 21/60 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 25/48 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 27% | 3/11 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 19/28 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 36/42 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 64% | 27/42 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Zverev 1, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Zverev
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,470 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alexander Zverev.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 23, 2025
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 31, 2025
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 3rd Round
Feb 25, 2025
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Zverev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Zverev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 90% | 9/10 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 10 or more | 67% | 12/18 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 28% | 5/18 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–4 | 2–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.43 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -5.0% | -50.4% |
| Units P/L | -0.90u | -3.53u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Zverev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Arnaldi's 60%).
| Opponent | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 76 26 46 | L 63 46 36 |
| Quentin Halys | W 64 63 57 62 | L 63 16 67 36 |
| Raphael Collignon | W 76 76 | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 63 76 | L 76 46 46 |
| Vit Kopriva | W 63 46 62 | W 26 63 62 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 63 64 | W 75 52 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 76 61 63 | L 16 64 36 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Jesper de Jong | W 76 64 61 | W 64 76 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 16 46 | W 46 76 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tommy Paul
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Terence Atmane
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Cameron Norrie
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Jannik Sinner
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 12
Arthur Fery
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 10
Taylor Fritz
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Jiri Lehecka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 7
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–80 matches
| Metric | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 74% | 50% |
| Sets won | 68% | 49% |
| Games won | 55% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Zverev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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