Alexander Bublik vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Bublik and Mackenzie McDonald have met 3 times since 2020; Alexander Bublik leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at St. Petersburg Open - St. Petersburg in 2020 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Bublik has taken 5 sets to McDonald's 4. Their most recent meeting: Alexander Bublik won at Wimbledon - London (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bublik | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Bublik | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 19/28 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 14/47 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 17/38 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 4/9 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 14/28 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 22/25 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 19/25 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bublik 0, McDonald 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 720 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alexander Bublik.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 3, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Oct 28, 2020
Astana Open - Nur-Sultan
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 12, 2020
St. Petersburg Open - St. Petersburg
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bublik | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Bublik | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 58% | 7/12 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 42% | 5/12 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bublik | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–5 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.75 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | -9.9% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.19u | -5.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bublik | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Bublik has a higher win rate against shared opponents (57% vs McDonald's 43%).
| Opponent | Bublik | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Edas Butvilas | W 64 63 | W 36 63 64 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | L 76 67 36 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 76 36 62 | L 62 36 46 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 76 67 36 | L 36 67 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 64 64 64 | W 64 62 |
| Vitaliy Sachko | L 57 63 57 | W 62 61 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 46 16 16 | L 26 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Tomas Machac
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Jakub Mensik
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Rafael Jodar
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Tommy Paul
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Adrian Mannarino
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
J.J. Wolf
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Quentin Halys
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Final
Jul 25
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–59 matches
| Metric | Bublik | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 41% |
| Sets won | 58% | 43% |
| Games won | 52% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bublik | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bublik | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.