Alex Michelsen vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Michelsen and Mackenzie McDonald have met 3 times since 2023; Alex Michelsen leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Infosys Hall of Fame Open - Newport in 2023 on grass. On hard courts Michelsen leads 2–0. Michelsen has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Michelsen has taken 6 sets to McDonald's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex Michelsen won at Citi Open - Washington (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Michelsen | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Michelsen | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 24% | 6/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 17/54 | 28% | 14/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 16/34 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 59% | 13/22 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 28/28 | 87% | 20/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 74% | 17/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Michelsen 3, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Michelsen
💥 Big Hitter
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,211 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alex Michelsen.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 28, 2026
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 12, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jul 21, 2023
Infosys Hall of Fame Open - Newport
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Michelsen | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Michelsen | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 10/18 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 3/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–5 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.46 | 1.96 |
| ROI % | -11.2% | -24.7% |
| Units P/L | -1.91u | -2.72u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 1 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Michelsen has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs McDonald's 0%).
| Opponent | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fearnley | W 76 63 | L 46 57 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 61 36 61 | L 62 36 46 |
| Lloyd Harris | W 63 63 | L 46 26 |
| Adam Walton | L 67 46 | L 16 36 |
| Shintaro Mochizuki | W 63 36 62 | L 67 57 |
| Daniel Merida | W 63 64 | L 57 46 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 75 67 64 | L 26 36 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 36 67 | L 46 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Jesper de Jong
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Daniel Merida Aguilar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Francisco Cerundolo
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Taylor Fritz
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Adrian Mannarino
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Mackenzie McDonald
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–59 matches
| Metric | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 49% |
| Sets won | 56% | 48% |
| Games won | 51% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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