Alex Michelsen vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Michelsen and Mackenzie McDonald have met 3 times since 2023; Alex Michelsen leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Infosys Hall of Fame Open - Newport in 2023 on grass. On hard courts Michelsen leads 2–0. Michelsen has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Michelsen has taken 6 sets to McDonald's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex Michelsen won at Citi Open - Washington (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Michelsen | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Michelsen | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 17/53 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 16/33 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 12/22 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 28/28 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Michelsen 3, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Michelsen
💥 Big Hitter
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alex Michelsen.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 28, 2026
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 12, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jul 21, 2023
Infosys Hall of Fame Open - Newport
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Michelsen | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Michelsen | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 19/20 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 85% | 17/20 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 65% | 13/20 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 4/20 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.81 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | -1.6% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.31u | -5.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Michelsen has a higher win rate against shared opponents (78% vs McDonald's 0%).
| Opponent | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 76 64 64 | L 76 67 36 |
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | W 76 64 63 | L 57 46 |
| Jacob Fearnley | W 76 63 | L 46 57 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 61 36 61 | L 62 36 46 |
| Lloyd Harris | W 63 63 | L 46 26 |
| Adam Walton | L 67 46 | L 16 36 |
| Shintaro Mochizuki | W 63 36 62 | L 67 57 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 75 67 64 | L 26 36 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 36 67 | L 46 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Botic van de Zandschulp
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Frances Tiafoe
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Daniel Merida Aguilar
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Federico Cina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–63 matches
| Metric | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 41% |
| Sets won | 60% | 43% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Michelsen | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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