Alex Michelsen vs Lorenzo SonegoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Michelsen and Lorenzo Sonego have met 3 times since 2024; Lorenzo Sonego leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Cagliari Challenger in 2024 on clay. On hard courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Sonego leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Michelsen has taken 3 sets to Sonego's 4. Their most recent meeting: Alex Michelsen won at ASB Classic - Auckland (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Michelsen | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Michelsen | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 17/53 | 38% | 14/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 16/33 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 12/22 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 28/28 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 53% | 10/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Michelsen 1, Sonego 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Michelsen
💥 Big Hitter
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 8, 2025
ASB Classic - Auckland
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 24, 2024
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem
H Hard · Final
May 1, 2024
Cagliari Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Michelsen | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Michelsen | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 19/20 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 85% | 17/20 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 5 or more | 65% | 13/20 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 4/20 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 15 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 4–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.81 | 2.57 |
| ROI % | -1.6% | -42.4% |
| Units P/L | -0.31u | -5.09u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Michelsen has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Sonego's 40%).
| Opponent | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| James Duckworth | W 67 76 63 | W 64 64 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 75 63 57 36 67 | L 36 46 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 76 64 64 | W 64 64 67 76 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 64 76 | W 61 76 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 36 46 | L 64 36 46 67 |
| Mariano Navone | W 26 62 75 | W 76 26 64 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 62 61 | L 46 61 57 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 75 67 64 | L 64 26 46 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 26 46 | L 63 67 46 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 75 67 76 | L 76 06 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Botic van de Zandschulp
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Frances Tiafoe
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Daniel Merida Aguilar
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Federico Cina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Aziz Dougaz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Kamil Majchrzak
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
James Duckworth
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–63 matches
| Metric | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 44% |
| Sets won | 60% | 46% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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