Alex Michelsen vs Lorenzo SonegoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Michelsen and Lorenzo Sonego have met 3 times since 2024; Lorenzo Sonego leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Cagliari Challenger in 2024 on clay. On hard courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Sonego leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Michelsen has taken 3 sets to Sonego's 4. Their most recent meeting: Alex Michelsen won at ASB Classic - Auckland (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Michelsen | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Michelsen | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 30% | 6/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 17/54 | 36% | 13/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 16/34 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 59% | 13/22 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 28/28 | 71% | 12/17 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 53% | 9/17 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Michelsen 1, Sonego 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Michelsen
💥 Big Hitter
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 8, 2025
ASB Classic - Auckland
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 24, 2024
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem
H Hard · Final
May 1, 2024
Cagliari Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Michelsen | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Michelsen | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 10/18 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 3/18 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–5 | 8–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.46 | 2.27 |
| ROI % | -11.2% | -18.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.91u | -2.92u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Michelsen has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Sonego's 30%).
| Opponent | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| James Duckworth | W 67 76 63 | L 57 36 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 64 76 | W 61 76 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 36 46 | L 64 36 46 67 |
| Mariano Navone | W 26 62 75 | W 76 26 64 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 62 61 | L 46 61 57 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 75 67 64 | L 64 26 46 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 26 46 | L 63 67 46 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 75 67 76 | L 76 06 36 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 36 67 | W 62 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 46 46 | L 67 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Jesper de Jong
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Daniel Merida Aguilar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Francisco Cerundolo
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Taylor Fritz
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Adrian Mannarino
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Mackenzie McDonald
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Juncheng Shang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Raphael Collignon
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Joel Schwaerzler
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 1st Round
Jul 13
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–59 matches
| Metric | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 47% |
| Sets won | 56% | 46% |
| Games won | 51% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Michelsen | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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