Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 7 · 12:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 2.72 or longer, Aleksandar Kovacevic has won 16 of 57 (28%). That is level with the 29% the price implied.
At 1.46 or shorter, Matteo Berrettini has won 93 of 116 (80%). The price implied 72%, so Matteo Berrettini has beaten it by 8 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Matteo Berrettini and Aleksandar Kovacevic meet in the first round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on October 7 on hard court. Berrettini, ranked 46th, comes in off a loss and has won two of his last five matches. Kovacevic sits at 81st and has played three matches in two weeks, but has won only one of his last five.
The two have never played each other. They have faced some of the same opponents recently with mixed results. Berrettini defeated Cameron Norrie and Titouan Droguet but lost to Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Hubert Hurkacz. Kovacevic beat Carabelli and Hurkacz while falling to Norrie and Droguet.
Both men rely on their serves as a primary weapon. On hard court, Berrettini has posted a 12-8 record, while Kovacevic sits at 8-12 over their recent samples. Berrettini's serve and ability to finish points quickly at the net should give him avenues to shorten rallies, but his inconsistency in the past two weeks means nothing is assured. Kovacevic must generate offense early and avoid extended baseline exchanges where Berrettini's power can compound his struggles.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kovacevic | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aleksandar Kovacevic | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 13/25 | 70% | 14/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 48% | 16/33 | 33% | 6/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 28/58 | 32% | 12/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 8/16 | 39% | 11/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 26/40 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 51% | 22/43 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 72% | 18/25 | 89% | 16/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 52% | 13/25 | 78% | 14/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kovacevic
🤖 Servebot
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
Both Aleksandar Kovacevic and Matteo Berrettini are 🤖 Servebot types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 6,476 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Kovacevic and Berrettini have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kovacevic | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aleksandar Kovacevic | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 5 or more | 83% | 10/12 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 4/12 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kovacevic | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–7 | 3–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 1.80 |
| ROI % | -0.9% | -25.0% |
| Units P/L | -0.11u | -1.75u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kovacevic | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 8 shared opponents, both Kovacevic and Berrettini posted a 38% win rate.
| Opponent | Kovacevic | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Valentin Vacherot | L 26 36 57 | L 67 46 |
| Titouan Droguet | L 64 67 46 | W 36 61 64 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 46 16 | W 76 67 64 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 57 46 | L 57 25 |
| Ignacio Buse | L 16 46 | L 67 76 46 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 64 67 62 | L 67 46 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 76 76 | L 64 36 46 |
| Patrick Kypson | W 64 76 | W 64 67 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Zachary Svajda
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Lloyd Harris
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Valentin Vacherot
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Arthur Fery
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Felix Balshaw
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 25
Luca Van Assche
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 25
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Stan Wawrinka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Mariano Navone
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 3
Grigor Dimitrov
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Matchup videos
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–62 matches
| Metric | Kovacevic | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 40% | 58% |
| Sets won | 43% | 57% |
| Games won | 48% | 51% |