Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
#26 · 27 yrs · R
Title4 meetings · sets 7–4
🇺🇸Mackenzie McDonald
#169 · 31 yrs · R
3Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Mackenzie McDonald have met 4 times since 2021; Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Stockholm Open - Stockholm in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Fokina leads 3–1. Across all meetings Fokina has taken 7 sets to McDonald's 4. Their most recent meeting: Mackenzie McDonald won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Davidovich Fokina | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 21/28 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 7/16 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 14/44 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 63% | 20/32 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 12/21 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 21/27 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Davidovich Fokina 1, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fokina
🎯 Baseliner
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 212 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 6, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 13, 2025
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 11, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 7, 2021
Stockholm Open - Stockholm
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fokina | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–2 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.60 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | +24.0% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | +2.16u | -5.63u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 1 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Fokina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs McDonald's 25%).
| Opponent | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Jenson Brooksby | W 61 63 | W 64 62 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 64 64 | L 46 57 |
| Marco Trungelliti | W 64 75 | W 26 62 75 |
| Adam Walton | W 64 75 | L 16 36 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 76 62 | L 26 36 |
| Rinky Hijikata | W 63 62 | L 36 67 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 64 67 16 36 | L 26 06 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 26 64 46 | L 26 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Jenson Brooksby
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Matteo Berrettini
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Final
Sep 29
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Alexandre Muller
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Alex Molcan
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–52 matches
| Metric | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 41% |
| Sets won | 63% | 43% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
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