Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
#27 · 27 yrs · R
6w4 meetings · sets 7–4
🇺🇸Mackenzie McDonald
#146 · 31 yrs · R
4Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Mackenzie McDonald have met 4 times since 2021; Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Stockholm Open - Stockholm in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Fokina leads 3–1. Across all meetings Fokina has taken 7 sets to McDonald's 4. Their most recent meeting: Mackenzie McDonald won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Davidovich Fokina | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 79% | 19/24 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | 24% | 6/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 27% | 11/41 | 28% | 14/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 66% | 19/29 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 5/12 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 9/18 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 20/23 | 87% | 20/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 83% | 19/23 | 74% | 17/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Davidovich Fokina 1, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fokina
🎯 Baseliner
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 460 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 6, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 13, 2025
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 11, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 7, 2021
Stockholm Open - Stockholm
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fokina | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 80% | 12/15 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 5 or more | 80% | 12/15 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 1.96 |
| ROI % | +2.7% | -24.7% |
| Units P/L | +0.38u | -2.72u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 1 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Fokina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs McDonald's 30%).
| Opponent | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Michelsen | W 64 64 | L 46 57 |
| Marco Trungelliti | W 64 75 | W 26 62 75 |
| Adam Walton | W 64 75 | L 16 36 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 76 62 | L 26 36 |
| Rinky Hijikata | W 63 62 | L 36 67 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 64 67 16 36 | L 26 06 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 26 64 46 | L 26 26 36 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 67 64 75 | W 64 62 |
| Quentin Halys | L 67 46 | L 36 26 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | W 64 64 | W 60 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alex Molcan
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Marco Trungelliti
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Marton Fucsovics
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Fabian Marozsan
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Ethan Quinn
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca · Final
Jun 27
Fabian Marozsan
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca · Semifinals
Jun 26
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–53 matches
| Metric | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 49% |
| Sets won | 60% | 48% |
| Games won | 52% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fokina | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
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