Adrian Mannarino vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adrian Mannarino and Rafael Nadal have met 4 times since 2016; Rafael Nadal leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Beijing in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Nadal leads 4–0. Nadal has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Mannarino has taken 0 sets to Nadal's 10. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 9/18 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 8/30 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 17/48 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 6/14 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 16/34 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 12/24 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 9/16 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mannarino 0, Nadal 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
💥 Big Hitter
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Adrian Mannarino.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jan 23, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Jan 16, 2022
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Oct 30, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Round of 32
Oct 6, 2016
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 16
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–9 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.71 | - |
| ROI % | +20.8% | - |
| Units P/L | +3.32u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 4 | — |
| Matches | 10 | — |
| Distance | 6,939 mi · 11,168 km | — |
| Route | FRA → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Karen Khachanov
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Flavio Cobolli
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Miomir Kecmanovic
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Denis Shapovalov
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Alejandro Tabilo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Juncheng Shang
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–54 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 37% | - |
| Sets won | 38% | - |
| Games won | 46% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mannarino | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mannarino | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 4 |
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