Adrian Mannarino vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adrian Mannarino and Rafael Nadal have met 4 times since 2016; Rafael Nadal leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Beijing in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Nadal leads 4–0. Nadal has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Mannarino has taken 0 sets to Nadal's 10. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 10/17 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 8/29 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 15/46 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 7/15 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 45% | 14/31 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 12/15 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 10/15 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mannarino 0, Nadal 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
🎯 Baseliner
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 396 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jan 23, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Jan 16, 2022
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Oct 30, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Round of 32
Oct 6, 2016
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 16
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–10 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.64 | - |
| ROI % | +1.8% | - |
| Units P/L | +0.32u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 777 mi · 1,250 km | — |
| Route | USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Thiago Agustin Tirante
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Lorenzo Sonego
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Denis Shapovalov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jacob Fearnley
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Learner Tien
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Alexis Galarneau
Newport Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–52 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 37% | - |
| Sets won | 38% | - |
| Games won | 46% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mannarino | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mannarino | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 4 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.