Adrian Mannarino vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adrian Mannarino and Lorenzo Musetti have met 3 times since 2023; Lorenzo Musetti leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Musetti leads 2–1. Musetti has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Mannarino has taken 3 sets to Musetti's 4. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at China Open - Beijing (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 9/18 | 73% | 16/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 8/30 | 25% | 4/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 17/48 | 26% | 10/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 6/14 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 16/34 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 12/24 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | 86% | 19/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 9/16 | 73% | 16/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mannarino 1, Musetti 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
💥 Big Hitter
Musetti
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Adrian Mannarino and Lorenzo Musetti are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 28, 2025
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 22, 2024
Chengdu Open - Chengdu
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 11, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mannarino | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Adrian Mannarino | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 46% | 5/11 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–9 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.71 | 1.50 |
| ROI % | +20.8% | -28.7% |
| Units P/L | +3.32u | -3.16u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 4 | 1 |
| Matches | 10 | 1 |
| Distance | 6,939 mi · 11,168 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | FRA → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (83% vs Mannarino's 0%).
| Opponent | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | L 36 16 16 | L 67 36 |
| Arthur Fery | L 67 46 | W 63 63 75 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | L 16 67 | W 63 63 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 26 26 | W 75 36 75 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 36 67 | W |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 36 26 | W 76 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Karen Khachanov
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Flavio Cobolli
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Miomir Kecmanovic
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Denis Shapovalov
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Alejandro Tabilo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Juncheng Shang
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Arthur Fery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–54 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 37% | 60% |
| Sets won | 38% | 59% |
| Games won | 46% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
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