Adrian Mannarino vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adrian Mannarino and Lorenzo Musetti have met 3 times since 2023; Lorenzo Musetti leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Musetti leads 2–1. Musetti has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Mannarino has taken 3 sets to Musetti's 4. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at China Open - Beijing (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 10/17 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 8/29 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 15/46 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 7/14 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 14/32 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 12/15 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 10/15 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mannarino 1, Musetti 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
🎯 Baseliner
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
Both Adrian Mannarino and Lorenzo Musetti are 🎯 Baseliner types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 606 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 28, 2025
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 22, 2024
Chengdu Open - Chengdu
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 11, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mannarino | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Adrian Mannarino | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 56% | 9/16 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/16 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–9 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.58 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | -2.3% | -18.1% |
| Units P/L | -0.37u | -1.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 7 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (57% vs Mannarino's 14%).
| Opponent | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Sonego | L 16 67 | W 63 63 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 26 26 | W 75 36 75 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 67 67 | W 76 64 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 67 46 62 26 | L 36 36 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 36 67 | L 46 26 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 63 62 | L 67 36 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 36 26 | W 76 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Lorenzo Sonego
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Denis Shapovalov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jacob Fearnley
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Learner Tien
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Alexis Galarneau
Newport Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Remy Bertola
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Alex de Minaur
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–52 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 35% | 65% |
| Sets won | 37% | 62% |
| Games won | 47% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mannarino | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.