ATP 250 · Finals · Stockholm
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paul
🎯 Baseliner
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 2,807 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Tommy Paul plays Denis Shapovalov.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paul | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–4 | 3–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | +12.7% | -38.1% |
| Units P/L | +2.41u | -3.43u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
2
Paul
2
Shapovalov
Feb 8, 2025
Dallas
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 17, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Jun 14, 2022
London / Queen's Club
G Grass · Round of 32
Nov 13, 2021
Stockholm
H Hard · Finals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Shapovalov's 30%).
| Opponent | Paul | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | W 26 63 63 | L 46 16 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 63 76 | W 57 64 63 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 76 63 | L 57 36 |
| Casper Ruud | L 64 76 46 67 57 | L 36 46 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 62 75 | L 57 36 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 67 76 76 | W 63 26 76 |
| Raphael Collignon | W 62 36 76 | L 46 26 |
| Joao Fonseca | L 26 36 | L 75 46 36 |
| Learner Tien | W 46 64 63 | L 67 57 |
| Adam Walton | W 76 63 | W 62 62 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Paul | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 63.9% | 60% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.6% | 68.2% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51% | 48.8% |
| Aces / Match | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.9 | 5.5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 51.4% | 51.8% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 32.7% | 28.7% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 52.8% | 44.7% |
| BP Converted % | 47.7% | 40.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 25 | 15.2 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 28.9 | 28.7 |
| Net Pts Won % | 71.6% | 54.5% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Ugo Humbert
HSBC Championships · Semifinals
Jun 20
Zachary Svajda
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 15
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Botic van de Zandschulp
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 12
Casper Ruud
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Matchup overview
Tommy Paul and Denis Shapovalov face off in the Finals at Stockholm on Hard.
Tommy Paul leads 2-2 over 4 previous meetings.
Tommy Paul is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Ugo Humbert (Jun 20).
Denis Shapovalov is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Alex de Minaur (Jun 17).
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