ATP Masters 1000 · Round of 32 · ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Paul
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 2,683 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Denis Shapovalov plays Tommy Paul.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–6 | 13–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 1.60 |
| ROI % | -38.1% | +9.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.43u | +1.59u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
2
Shapovalov
2
Paul
Feb 8, 2025
Dallas
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 17, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Jun 14, 2022
London / Queen's Club
G Grass · Round of 32
Nov 13, 2021
Stockholm
H Hard · Finals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Shapovalov's 30%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | L 46 16 | W 26 63 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 57 64 63 | W 63 76 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 57 36 | W 76 63 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 46 | L 64 76 46 67 57 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 57 36 | W 62 75 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 26 76 | W 67 76 76 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 46 26 | W 62 36 76 |
| Joao Fonseca | L 75 46 36 | L 26 36 |
| Learner Tien | L 67 57 | W 46 64 63 |
| Adam Walton | W 62 62 | W 76 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 60% | 64.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 68.2% | 70.8% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 48.8% | 50.7% |
| Aces / Match | 4.3 | 5.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 5.5 | 2.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 51.8% | 48.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 28.7% | 33.2% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 44.7% | 53.2% |
| BP Converted % | 40.5% | 43.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 15.6 | 25.5 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 26.1 | 33.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 52.8% | 75.4% |
| Total Pts Won % | 48.2% | 51.6% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Zachary Svajda
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 15
Botic van de Zandschulp
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 12
Casper Ruud
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Lorenzo Sonego
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Matchup overview
Denis Shapovalov and Tommy Paul face off in the Round of 32 at ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati on Hard.
Denis Shapovalov leads 2-2 over 4 previous meetings.
Denis Shapovalov is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Alex de Minaur (Jun 17).
Tommy Paul is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Jun 15).
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