ATP Challenger Tour · Round of 16 · Cary
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paul
🎯 Baseliner
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,729 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Tommy Paul plays Brandon Nakashima.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paul | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–4 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.60 | 2.11 |
| ROI % | +9.3% | -46.0% |
| Units P/L | +1.59u | -3.68u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 5 career meetings
1
Paul
4
Nakashima
Oct 23, 2024
Vienna
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 8, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Round of 32
May 25, 2023
Lyon
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jun 7, 2022
's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Round of 32
Sep 12, 2019
Cary
H Hard · Round of 16
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Nakashima's 60%).
| Opponent | Paul | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Buse | L 67 64 36 | W 62 62 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 63 76 | W 76 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 26 63 63 | W 75 63 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 76 63 | L 36 64 67 67 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | W 63 62 64 | L 76 67 67 63 67 |
| Ethan Quinn | W 61 63 | W 76 64 |
| Luciano Darderi | L 63 36 26 | W 62 75 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 75 46 76 | L 63 67 46 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | W 61 36 75 | L 46 62 46 |
| Raphael Collignon | W 62 36 76 | W 63 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Paul | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 64.5% | 65.3% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.8% | 74.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 50.7% | 49.9% |
| Aces / Match | 5.2 | 7 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Break Points Saved % | 48.6% | 38.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 33.2% | 28.8% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 53.2% | 56.4% |
| BP Converted % | 43.5% | 56.7% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 25.5 | 20.9 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 33.6 | 22.7 |
| Net Pts Won % | 75.4% | 72.6% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.6% | 52.4% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Zachary Svajda
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 15
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Botic van de Zandschulp
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 12
Casper Ruud
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Lorenzo Sonego
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Francisco Cerundolo
HSBC Championships · Semifinals
Jun 18
Ignacio Buse
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 17
Marton Fucsovics
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 16
Alex de Minaur
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Matchup overview
Tommy Paul and Brandon Nakashima face off in the Round of 16 at Cary on Hard.
Tommy Paul leads 1-4 over 5 previous meetings.
Tommy Paul is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Zachary Svajda (Jun 15).
Brandon Nakashima is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Francisco Cerundolo (Jun 18).
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