ATP 500 · Quarterfinals · HSBC Championships
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Minaur
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 582 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Brandon Nakashima plays Alex de Minaur.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 12–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.11 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | -46.0% | -4.6% |
| Units P/L | -3.68u | -0.88u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 3 career meetings
2
Nakashima
1
Minaur
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Nakashima's 60%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 46 06 | L 36 62 67 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 62 | W 76 75 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 75 16 67 67 | W 63 62 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 62 75 | W 60 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 76 64 | W 62 46 64 |
| Alexander Blockx | L 63 36 46 | W 75 76 |
| Arthur Fils | L 26 36 | W 76 62 |
| Hamad Medjedovic | W 76 62 | L 36 46 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 26 62 63 | L 46 63 36 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 76 63 | W 76 26 62 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Nakashima | Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 65.3% | 62.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 74.6% | 64.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 49.9% | 51.1% |
| Aces / Match | 7 | 2.3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Break Points Saved % | 38.6% | 55.7% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 28.8% | 30.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 56.4% | 50.5% |
| BP Converted % | 56.7% | 41.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 20.9 | 18.8 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 22.7 | 34.4 |
| Net Pts Won % | 72.6% | 71.7% |
| Total Pts Won % | 52.4% | 49.1% |
| Surface (Grass) | ||
| Grass Win % | 100% | 83% |
Last five matches per player
Ignacio Buse
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 17
Marton Fucsovics
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 16
Alex de Minaur
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Luca Van Assche
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Matchup overview
Brandon Nakashima and Alex de Minaur face off in the Quarterfinals at HSBC Championships on Grass.
Brandon Nakashima leads 2-1 over 3 previous meetings.
Brandon Nakashima is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Ignacio Buse (Jun 17).
Alex de Minaur is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Denis Shapovalov (Jun 17).
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