WTA 250 · Quarterfinals · Olympics
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 5,134 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Madison Keys here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–3 | 7–8 |
| Avg odds | 2.14 | 2.68 |
| ROI % | +79.6% | -34.1% |
| Units P/L | +11.94u | -5.11u |
Prior meetings and scores · 12 career meetings
10
Keys
2
Kasatkina
Jan 6, 2025
Adelaide
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 26, 2023
Eastbourne
G Grass · Final
Apr 3, 2023
Charleston
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 10, 2022
San Diego
H Hard · Round of 16
Jan 3, 2022
Melbourne 2
H Hard · Round of 16
Jan 20, 2020
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Sep 16, 2019
Osaka
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 12, 2019
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Oct 29, 2018
Zhuhai
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 14, 2017
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs Kasatkina's 44%).
| Opponent | Keys | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 36 | L |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W | W |
| Peyton Stearns | W 46 64 62 | W 61 63 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 36 61 46 | L 67 60 36 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 26 63 63 | L 26 36 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 60 63 | W 75 61 |
| Sonay Kartal | L 62 26 36 | L 36 06 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 61 | W 62 63 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 16 26 | L 75 16 16 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Keys | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.5% | 71.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.1% | 55.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 43.7% | 40.4% |
| Aces / Match | 5.2 | 3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.5 | 5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 43.8% | 56.3% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 39% | 44.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 54.7% | 60.4% |
| BP Converted % | 56.8% | 48.7% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 52.6% | 50.5% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Madison Keys and Daria Kasatkina face off in the Quarterfinals at Olympics on Hard.
Madison Keys leads 10-2 over 12 previous meetings.
Madison Keys is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Karolina Muchova (Jun 18).
Daria Kasatkina is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Anna Blinkova (Jun 13).
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