Grand Slam · Round of 32 · Roland Garros
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 5,292 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Aryna Sabalenka plays Daria Kasatkina.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–1 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.10 | 2.49 |
| ROI % | -10.7% | -38.6% |
| Units P/L | -0.64u | -3.47u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 11 career meetings
9
Sabalenka
2
Kasatkina
May 30, 2026
French Open
C Clay ·
May 25, 2026
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 32
Jun 17, 2024
Berlin
G Grass · Round of 16
Jan 1, 2024
Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 28, 2023
Us Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 14, 2023
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 1, 2022
San Jose
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Apr 29, 2021
Madrid
C Clay · Round of 32
Feb 8, 2021
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Sep 28, 2020
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 64
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Kasatkina's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Naomi Osaka | W | L 06 64 36 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 75 63 | W 61 63 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | L 67 63 26 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 62 | W 75 63 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | L 26 36 |
| Ann Li | W 76 64 | L 76 26 46 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 46 62 64 | W 62 63 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 76 | W 64 60 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | L 57 64 46 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 63 36 67 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 65.4% | 71.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.8% | 55.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 54.4% | 40.4% |
| Aces / Match | 3.9 | 3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.3 | 5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 54.5% | 56.3% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 34.2% | 44.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 57.5% | 60.4% |
| BP Converted % | 45.2% | 48.7% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 54.5% | 50.5% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 75% | 62% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Daria Kasatkina face off in the Round of 32 at Roland Garros on Clay.
Aryna Sabalenka leads 9-2 over 11 previous meetings.
Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 3).
Daria Kasatkina is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Robin Montgomery (Jun 8).
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