Grand Slam · French Open
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
👑 The Complete Package
Kasatkina
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 75% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 600 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Aryna Sabalenka here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–0 | 2–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.74 | 1.69 |
| ROI % | +74.0% | -39.4% |
| Units P/L | +2.22u | -1.97u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 9 career meetings
7
Sabalenka
2
Kasatkina
Jun 17, 2024
Berlin
G Grass · Round of 16
Jan 1, 2024
Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 28, 2023
Us Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 14, 2023
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 1, 2022
San Jose
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Apr 29, 2021
Madrid
C Clay · Round of 32
Feb 8, 2021
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Sep 28, 2020
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 64
Sep 30, 2019
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Kasatkina's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Peyton Stearns | W 75 63 | W 61 63 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | L 67 63 26 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 62 | W 75 63 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | L 26 36 |
| Naomi Osaka | W 67 63 62 | L 06 64 36 |
| Ann Li | W 76 64 | L 76 26 46 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 46 62 64 | W 62 63 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 76 | W 64 60 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | L 57 64 46 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 63 36 67 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 66.1% | 71.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 72.9% | 55.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 56% | 40.4% |
| Aces / Match | 5 | 3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.2 | 5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 63% | 56.3% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 33.9% | 44.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 56.1% | 60.4% |
| BP Converted % | 42.2% | 48.7% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 54.9% | 50.5% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 71% | 43% |
Last five matches per player
Match summary
Aryna Sabalenka meets Daria Kasatkina at the French Open on May 30 on clay. The world number one arrives fresh off a 24-day break, while Kasatkina has played three matches in her last two weeks. This will be their tenth career meeting.
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head series 7-2 and has won four of her last five matches. Kasatkina has won only two of her last five and sits at a 45% win rate on clay in her recent sample, compared to Sabalenka's 80%. The two have faced several common opponents lately, with Sabalenka defeating Anastasia Potapova and Ann Li while Kasatkina fell to both.
Sabalenka generates pace and depth from the baseline and thrives on clay with her aggressive groundstrokes. Kasatkina counters with touch and court positioning, relying on angles and consistency rather than power. The surface suits Sabalenka's all-court game; Kasatkina will need to sustain rallies and create openings through placement rather than pace to test the top seed's dominance.
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