WTA 250 · Round of 32 · Osaka
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–1 | 5–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.63 | 2.38 |
| ROI % | +138.3% | -30.7% |
| Units P/L | +12.45u | -3.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 12 career meetings
10
Keys
2
Kasatkina
Jan 6, 2025
Adelaide
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 26, 2023
Eastbourne
G Grass · Final
Apr 3, 2023
Charleston
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 10, 2022
San Diego
H Hard · Round of 16
Jan 3, 2022
Melbourne 2
H Hard · Round of 16
Jan 20, 2020
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Sep 16, 2019
Osaka
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 12, 2019
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Oct 29, 2018
Zhuhai
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 14, 2017
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs Kasatkina's 44%).
| Opponent | Keys | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 36 | L |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W | W |
| Peyton Stearns | W 46 64 62 | W 61 63 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 36 61 46 | L 67 60 36 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 26 63 63 | L 26 36 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 60 63 | W 75 61 |
| Sonay Kartal | L 62 26 36 | L 36 06 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 61 | W 62 63 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 16 26 | L 75 16 16 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Keys | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 64.1% | 71.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 72.3% | 55.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 44.7% | 40.4% |
| Aces / Match | 4.6 | 3 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.5 | 5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 54% | 56.3% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 38.1% | 44.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 55.9% | 60.4% |
| BP Converted % | 50.2% | 48.7% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 53.1% | 50.5% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 50% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Madison Keys and Daria Kasatkina face off in the Round of 32 at Osaka on Hard.
Madison Keys leads 10-2 over 12 previous meetings.
Madison Keys is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 1).
Daria Kasatkina is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Robin Montgomery (Jun 8).
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