ATP Masters 1000 · 2nd Round Qualifying · ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Carabelli
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 4,469 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Brandon Nakashima here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 9–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.11 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -46.0% | -1.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.68u | -0.20u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 2 career meetings
2
Nakashima
0
Carabelli
Mar 6, 2026
BNP Paribas Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Apr 23, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Carabelli's 60%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Buse | W 62 62 | W 63 36 75 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 63 63 | L 67 16 26 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 63 | L 46 26 |
| Luca Van Assche | W 67 64 57 61 63 | W 06 63 62 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 46 06 | W 16 62 63 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 76 64 | L 46 76 26 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 63 67 46 | W 76 76 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 63 75 | W 75 61 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 46 62 46 | L 36 46 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 62 | W 76 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Nakashima | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 65.3% | 61.6% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 74.6% | 70.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 49.9% | 51.6% |
| Aces / Match | 7 | 4.4 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Break Points Saved % | 38.6% | 64% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 28.8% | 32.6% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 56.4% | 54.2% |
| BP Converted % | 56.7% | 37.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 20.9 | 22.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 22.7 | 28.9 |
| Net Pts Won % | 72.6% | 72.5% |
| Total Pts Won % | 52.4% | 51.3% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 50% | 56% |
Last five matches per player
Francisco Cerundolo
HSBC Championships · Semifinals
Jun 18
Ignacio Buse
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 17
Marton Fucsovics
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 16
Alex de Minaur
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Andrey Rublev
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Emilio Nava
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 32
May 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Quarterfinals
May 16
Miomir Kecmanovic
Copa Faulconbridge · Quarterfinals
May 15
Matchup overview
Brandon Nakashima and Camilo Ugo Carabelli face off in the 2nd Round Qualifying at ATP Masters 1000 Madrid on Clay.
Brandon Nakashima leads 2-0 over 2 previous meetings.
Brandon Nakashima is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Francisco Cerundolo (Jun 18).
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Andrey Rublev (May 27).
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