Pablo Carreno Busta vs Tomas MachacPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pablo Carreno Busta and Tomas Machac have met 1 time since 2026; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 1–0. Across all meetings Busta has taken 2 sets to Machac's 0. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Machac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Tomas Machac | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 18/34 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 8/18 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 24/52 | 48% | 13/27 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 14/29 | 21% | 3/14 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 59% | 13/22 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 10/15 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 100% | 8/8 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 18/27 | 63% | 5/8 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carreno Busta 1, Machac 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Machac
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 14, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Busta | Machac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pablo Carreno Busta | Tomas Machac | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 6/12 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 5 or more | 17% | 2/12 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–6 | 2–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.47 | 1.95 |
| ROI % | -9.8% | -56.4% |
| Units P/L | -1.18u | -4.51u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Machac has a higher win rate against shared opponents (57% vs Busta's 29%).
| Opponent | Busta | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Lehecka | L 16 67 64 26 | L 46 76 26 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 67 16 | L 46 36 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 63 36 61 36 46 | L 46 64 36 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 57 75 75 | W 26 64 61 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 63 | W 36 76 63 |
| Quentin Halys | L 64 57 36 | W 64 62 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | L 36 26 | W 64 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Zhizhen Zhang
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Alex Molcan
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Arthur Gea
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yannick Hanfmann
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Toby Samuel
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Mees Rottgering
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–58 matches
| Metric | Busta | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 48% |
| Sets won | 58% | 48% |
| Games won | 52% | 47% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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