Naomi Osaka vs Serena WilliamsPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 6–2
🇺🇸Serena Williams
Unranked · 44 yrs · Right-Handed
9wNaomi Osaka and Serena Williams have met 4 times since 2018; Naomi Osaka leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Miami in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 3–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Osaka leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Osaka has taken 6 sets to Williams's 2. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Osaka | Williams | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Naomi Osaka | Serena Williams | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 4/12 | 100% | 1/1 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 14/44 | 100% | 1/1 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 17/33 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 6/9 | 100% | 1/1 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 64% | 9/14 | 100% | 1/1 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 22/34 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Osaka 3, Williams 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Williams
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 18, 2021
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 9, 2019
Toronto
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 2, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Final
Mar 20, 2018
Miami
H Hard · Round of 128
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Osaka | Williams |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–4 | 0–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.66 | 1.93 |
| ROI % | +7.9% | -100.0% |
| Units P/L | +1.27u | -1.00u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Osaka | Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 350 mi · 563 km | — |
| Route | AUT → CAN | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Elise Mertens
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Panna Udvardy
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Karolina Muchova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Maya Joint
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Ajla Tomljanovic
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 2
Anett Kontaveit
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Aug 31
Danka Kovinic
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 29
Emma Raducanu
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 16
Belinda Bencic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 10
Nuria Parrizas Diaz
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 8
Harmony Tan
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 1–44 matches
| Metric | Osaka | Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 73% | 0% |
| Sets won | 67% | 33% |
| Games won | 57% | 42% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Osaka | Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Osaka | Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
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