Mattia Bellucci vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mattia Bellucci and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2023; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Malaga Challenger in 2023 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Bellucci has taken 3 sets to Busta's 2. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Brisbane International presented by ANZ (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bellucci | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mattia Bellucci | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 29/41 | 60% | 18/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 10/26 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 22/67 | 42% | 20/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 19/34 | 54% | 14/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 66% | 19/29 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 15/29 | 73% | 8/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 36/42 | 88% | 21/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 69% | 29/42 | 75% | 18/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bellucci 1, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bellucci
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,131 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mattia Bellucci.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 3, 2026
Brisbane International presented by ANZ
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 12, 2023
Malaga Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bellucci | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mattia Bellucci | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 24/24 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 24/24 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 92% | 22/24 | 25% | 3/12 |
| 10 or more | 38% | 9/24 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 4% | 1/24 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bellucci | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–8 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.89 | 2.66 |
| ROI % | -1.2% | -14.2% |
| Units P/L | -0.28u | -1.56u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bellucci | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 9 | 5 |
| Distance | 3,053 mi · 4,913 km | 5,930 mi · 9,543 km |
| Route | CHN → KAZ | CHN → AUT |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Bellucci's 33%).
| Opponent | Bellucci | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Mariano Navone | L 57 46 | W 46 75 63 |
| Yi Zhou | L 46 63 67 | W 75 63 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 57 62 67 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 57 36 | W 57 75 75 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 67 61 | L 36 36 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 64 64 | W 76 75 36 64 |
| Quentin Halys | L 36 67 36 | L 64 57 36 |
| Reda Bennani | W 63 36 64 | W 64 62 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 16 46 | W 46 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Terence Atmane
Almaty Open - Almaty · 2nd Round
Oct 22
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Almaty Open - Almaty · 1st Round
Oct 21
Martin Landaluce
Jinan Challenger · Final
Oct 18
Shintaro Mochizuki
Jinan Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 17
Aleksandr Shevchenko
Jinan Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 16
Luka Pavlovic
Jinan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 15
Elias Ymer
Jinan Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 13
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Jacob Fearnley
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 24
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–71 matches
| Metric | Bellucci | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 59% |
| Sets won | 57% | 57% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bellucci | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bellucci | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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