Head-to-Head

Madison Keys vs Peyton StearnsPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇺🇸Madison Keys

#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed

6wBack after 6w off

1–1

2 meetings · sets 3–3

🇺🇸Peyton Stearns

#37 · 24 yrs · Right-Handed

Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns have met 2 times since 2025; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2025 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Keys has taken 3 sets to Stearns's 3. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Keys	Stearns
Indicator	Madison Keys		Peyton Stearns
Wins in straight sets	74%	25/34	76%	19/25
Wins a set when losing	56%	9/16	48%	11/23
Goes to a deciding set	36%	18/50	35%	17/48
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	57%	23/40	45%	13/29
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	38%	3/8	56%	10/18
Tiebreak sets won	46%	6/13	64%	7/11
Wins after taking set 1	81%	26/32	85%	23/27
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	78%	25/32	70%	19/27

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 0, Stearns 0).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Keys

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Stearns

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

Both Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.

Previous meetings

2 career meetings, newest first

May 8, 2026

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

C Clay · 2nd Round

Keys

May 10, 2025

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

C Clay · 3rd Round

6³7

Stearns

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Keys	Stearns
Outcome	Madison Keys		Peyton Stearns
1 or more	100%	10/10	100%	14/14
3 or more	70%	7/10	50%	7/14
5 or more	50%	5/10	43%	6/14
10 or more	20%	2/10	0%	0/14
15 or more	0%	0/10	0%	0/14
20 or more	0%	0/10	0%	0/14

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Keys	Stearns
W-L	6–4	7–7
Avg odds	1.40	1.76
ROI %	-24.8%	-15.9%
Units P/L	-2.48u	-2.22u

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Keys	Stearns
Countries	—	3
Events	—	3
Matches	—	6
Distance	—	8,184 mi · 13,171 km
Route	—	UKR → ROU → CZE

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Stearns's 40%).

Opponent	Keys	Stearns
Liudmila Samsonova	L 63 46 46	W 76 62
Diane Parry	L	W 62 75
Daria Snigur	W 46 63 63	W 64 60
Elena Gabriela Ruse	W 60 63	L 06 57
Amanda Anisimova	W 36 62 63	L 16 46
Nikola Bartunkova	L 36 61 46	L 46 63 57
Petra Marcinko	W	W 62 75
Mccartney Kessler	W 63 61	L 06 63 46
Belinda Bencic	W 46 63 62	L 36 36
Aryna Sabalenka	L 36 36	L 57 36

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Keys

LWWLWWWL

Qinwen Zheng

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

6³7

Sep 5

Anna Bondar

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round

76⁵

Sep 3

Alina Korneeva

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round

Sep 1

Sara Bejlek

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

6⁵7

Aug 21

Xiyu Wang

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

76³

Aug 20

Katerina Siniakova

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

Aug 18

Daria Snigur

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

Aug 16

Marta Kostyuk

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

Aug 7

Stearns

LLWLWWWL

Han Shi

Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying

Oct 10

Viktorija Golubic

China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round

Oct 2

Liudmila Samsonova

Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Semifinals

76⁷

Sep 19

Iva Jovic

Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Final

Sep 19

Sloane Stephens

Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals

76⁶

Sep 18

Diane Parry

Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 2nd Round

Sep 15

Emiliana Arango

Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round

Sep 13

Harriet Dart

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round

Aug 31

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ Keyslevel↓ Stearns

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–50 matches

Metric	Keys	Stearns
Matches won	68%	52%
Sets won	65%	54%
Games won	56%	51%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

Stage	Keys	Stearns
WTA 1000	1	1

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

Surface	Keys	Stearns
Clay	1	1

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Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns FAQ

The head-to-head is level at 1–1 over 2 meetings.

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Style Matchup

Previous meetings

Prop Research

Player ROI

Travel

Common opponents

Recent Form

Rivalry momentum

Win rate

Record by tier

By surface

More Keys rivalries

More Stearns rivalries

Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns FAQ

Who leads the Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns head-to-head?

Who won the last Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns match?

How many times have Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns played?

Who leads the Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns head-to-head on clay courts?

When did Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns last play each other?