Head-to-Head

Madison Keys vs Peyton StearnsPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇺🇸Madison Keys

#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed

1–1

2 meetings · sets 3–3

🇺🇸Peyton Stearns

#54 · 24 yrs · Right-Handed

Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns have met 2 times since 2025; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2025 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Keys has taken 3 sets to Stearns's 3. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Keys	Stearns
Indicator	Madison Keys		Peyton Stearns
Wins in straight sets	75%	24/32	75%	15/20
Wins a set when losing	53%	8/15	42%	8/19
Goes to a deciding set	34%	16/47	33%	13/39
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	59%	22/37	46%	11/24
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	38%	3/8	53%	8/15
Tiebreak sets won	45%	5/11	56%	5/9
Wins after taking set 1	83%	25/30	90%	18/20
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	80%	24/30	75%	15/20

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 0, Stearns 0).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Keys

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Stearns

🤖 Servebot

High ace rateDominant serviceWeaker returnBig first serve

Matchup analysis

💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

2 career meetings, newest first

May 8, 2026

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

C Clay · 2nd Round

Keys

May 10, 2025

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

C Clay · 3rd Round

6³7

Stearns

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Keys	Stearns
Outcome	Madison Keys		Peyton Stearns
1 or more	100%	19/19	100%	7/7
3 or more	68%	13/19	43%	3/7
5 or more	37%	7/19	43%	3/7
10 or more	16%	3/19	0%	0/7
15 or more	0%	0/19	0%	0/7
20 or more	0%	0/19	0%	0/7

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Keys	Stearns
W-L	13–6	4–5
Avg odds	1.44	1.75
ROI %	-10.3%	-35.8%
Units P/L	-1.95u	-3.22u

Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Keys	Stearns
Countries	2	3
Events	2	3
Matches	6	4
Distance	411 mi · 662 km	1,228 mi · 1,977 km
Route	CAN → POL	ECU → CAN → POL

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Stearns's 25%).

Opponent	Keys	Stearns
Daria Snigur	W 46 63 63	W 64 60
Elena Gabriela Ruse	W 60 63	L 06 57
Amanda Anisimova	W 36 62 63	L 16 46
Nikola Bartunkova	L 36 61 46	L 46 63 57
Mccartney Kessler	W 63 61	L 06 63 46
Belinda Bencic	W 46 63 62	L 36 36
Aryna Sabalenka	L 36 36	L 57 36
Ashlyn Krueger	W 61 75	W 76 75

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Keys

LWWWLWLL

Sara Bejlek

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

6⁵7

Aug 21

Xiyu Wang

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

76³

Aug 20

Katerina Siniakova

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

Aug 18

Daria Snigur

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

Aug 16

Marta Kostyuk

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

Aug 7

Antonia Ruzic

National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round

Aug 4

Liudmila Samsonova

Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round

Jul 28

Linda Noskova

Wimbledon - London · 4th Round

6²7

Jul 6

Stearns

LWLLWWLL

Clara Tauson

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

6⁷7

Aug 16

Harriet Dart

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round

76⁶

Aug 14

Elena Gabriela Ruse

National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round

Aug 3

Elvina Kalieva

The Memphis Classic - Memphis · Quarterfinals

Jul 31

Tatiana Prozorova

The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round

Jul 30

Mary Stoiana

The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round

6⁵7

Jul 29

Nikola Bartunkova

Wimbledon - London · 1st Round

Jun 29

Kimberly Birrell

Eastbourne

Jun 21

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ Keyslevel↓ Stearns

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–47 matches

Metric	Keys	Stearns
Matches won	68%	51%
Sets won	65%	53%
Games won	56%	51%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

Stage	Keys	Stearns
WTA 1000	1	1

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

Surface	Keys	Stearns
Clay	1	1

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Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns FAQ

The head-to-head is level at 1–1 over 2 meetings.

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Style Matchup

Previous meetings

Prop Research

Player ROI

Travel

Common opponents

Recent Form

Rivalry momentum

Win rate

Record by tier

By surface

More Keys rivalries

More Stearns rivalries

Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns FAQ

Who leads the Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns head-to-head?

Who won the last Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns match?

How many times have Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns played?

Who leads the Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns head-to-head on clay courts?

When did Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns last play each other?