Madison Keys vs Marketa VondrousovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 2–2
🇨🇿Marketa Vondrousova
#153 · 26 yrs · Left-Handed
33wMadison Keys and Marketa Vondrousova have met 2 times since 2023; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2023 on hard. Across all meetings Keys has taken 2 sets to Vondrousova's 2. Their most recent meeting: Marketa Vondrousova won at Berlin Ladies Open - Berlin (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Vondrousova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Marketa Vondrousova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 0% | 0/2 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 8/15 | 50% | 1/2 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 16/47 | 75% | 3/4 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 22/37 | 0% | 0/3 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 100% | 1/1 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 50% | 1/2 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 100% | 2/2 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 24/30 | 0% | 0/2 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 1, Vondrousova 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Vondrousova
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jun 17, 2025
Berlin Ladies Open - Berlin
G Grass · 1st Round
Sep 6, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Vondrousova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | - |
| ROI % | -10.3% | - |
| Units P/L | -1.95u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Vondrousova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 2 shared opponents, both Keys and Vondrousova posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Keys | Vondrousova |
|---|---|---|
| Liudmila Samsonova | L 63 46 46 | W 61 46 62 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 64 75 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Liudmila Samsonova
Adelaide International - Adelaide · 1st Round
Jan 13
Magdalena Frech
Brisbane International - Brisbane · 1st Round
Jan 5
Karolina Muchova
Ningbo Open - Ningbo · 1st Round
Oct 14
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Aug 31
Jasmine Paolini
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Aug 29
Mccartney Kessler
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Oksana Selekhmeteva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 24
Aryna Sabalenka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 4–47 matches
| Metric | Keys | Vondrousova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 50% |
| Sets won | 65% | 45% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Vondrousova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Vondrousova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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