Luca Nardi vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Nardi and Matteo Arnaldi have met 1 time since 2025; Matteo Arnaldi leads 1–0. Across all meetings Nardi has taken 1 sets to Arnaldi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Tokyo (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nardi | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Nardi | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 13/18 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 14/22 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 19/40 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 10/21 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 61% | 11/18 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 65% | 13/20 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 13/20 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nardi 0, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nardi
🏹 Frontrunner
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs ⚙️ Grinder is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 279 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 22, 2025
Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nardi | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Nardi | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 67% | 4/6 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 90% | 9/10 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 2–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.89 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -38.1% | -50.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.43u | -3.53u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Nardi and Arnaldi posted a 33% win rate.
| Opponent | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Fabian Marozsan | L 67 36 | W 75 26 64 |
| Giles Hussey | W 63 62 | L 46 26 |
| Jacob Fearnley | L 64 06 36 | L 57 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Andrea Guerrieri
Umag
Jul 11
Otto Virtanen
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 24
Rio Noguchi
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Remy Bertola
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 15
Giles Hussey
Lexus Nottingham Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Oscar Weightman
Lexus Nottingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Jacob Fearnley
Ilkley Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 10
Remy Bertola
Perugia Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 4
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–42 matches
| Metric | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 50% |
| Sets won | 50% | 49% |
| Games won | 50% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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