Luca Nardi vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Nardi and Matteo Arnaldi have met 1 time since 2025; Matteo Arnaldi leads 1–0. Across all meetings Nardi has taken 1 sets to Arnaldi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Tokyo (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nardi | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Nardi | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 76% | 13/17 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 65% | 13/20 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 17/37 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 10/21 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 10/15 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 8/22 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 65% | 13/20 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 13/20 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nardi 0, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nardi
🏹 Frontrunner
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 22, 2025
Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 0–1 | 3–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.58 | 3.11 |
| ROI % | -100.0% | -35.4% |
| Units P/L | -1.00u | -3.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | — | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nardi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Arnaldi's 0%).
| Opponent | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Giles Hussey | W 63 62 | L 46 26 |
| Jacob Fearnley | L 64 06 36 | L 57 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
Federico Cina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Andrea Guerrieri
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 11
Otto Virtanen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 24
Rio Noguchi
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Remy Bertola
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 15
Giles Hussey
Lexus Nottingham Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Oscar Weightman
Lexus Nottingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 38–44 matches
| Metric | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 45% | 52% |
| Sets won | 51% | 50% |
| Games won | 50% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nardi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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