Lorenzo Sonego vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lorenzo Sonego and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 3 times since 2019; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Antalya in 2019 on grass. Busta has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sonego has taken 3 sets to Busta's 4. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sonego | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Sonego | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 9/16 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 6/20 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 13/36 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 39% | 7/18 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 8/18 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 8/15 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 71% | 12/17 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 9/17 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sonego 1, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 767 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 22, 2022
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 3rd Round
Aug 13, 2019
Winston-Salem
H Hard · Round of 16
Jun 24, 2019
Antalya
G Grass · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sonego | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Sonego | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 5/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–8 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.27 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -18.3% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.92u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (43% vs Sonego's 14%).
| Opponent | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | L 26 36 | L 67 16 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 67 57 | L 46 46 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 62 67 46 | W 46 63 76 |
| Mattia Bellucci | L 46 61 57 | W 64 26 76 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 67 46 | L 36 36 |
| Dusan Lajovic | L 36 67 | L 46 63 36 |
| Pedro Martinez | W 62 26 64 | W 64 46 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Juncheng Shang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Raphael Collignon
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Joel Schwaerzler
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 1st Round
Jul 13
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–65 matches
| Metric | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 65% |
| Sets won | 46% | 60% |
| Games won | 49% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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