Lorenzo Sonego vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lorenzo Sonego and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 3 times since 2019; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Antalya in 2019 on grass. Busta has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sonego has taken 3 sets to Busta's 4. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sonego | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Sonego | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 10/16 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 8/21 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 14/37 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 8/18 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 8/16 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 10/19 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sonego 1, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Sonego.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 22, 2022
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 3rd Round
Aug 13, 2019
Winston-Salem
H Hard · Round of 16
Jun 24, 2019
Antalya
G Grass · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sonego | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Sonego | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 42% | 5/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–8 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.57 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -42.4% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | -5.09u | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (44% vs Sonego's 33%).
| Opponent | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Mariano Navone | W 76 26 64 | W 46 75 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 63 67 46 | L 46 26 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 61 76 | W 63 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 26 36 | L 67 16 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 67 57 | L 46 46 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 62 67 46 | W 46 63 76 |
| Mattia Bellucci | L 46 61 57 | W 64 26 76 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 67 46 | L 36 36 |
| Pedro Martinez | W 62 26 64 | L |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aziz Dougaz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Kamil Majchrzak
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
James Duckworth
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–58 matches
| Metric | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 62% |
| Sets won | 46% | 58% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sonego | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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