Katerina Siniakova vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇿Katerina Siniakova
#39 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 0–6
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Katerina Siniakova and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2019; Madison Keys leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Roland Garros in 2019 on clay. On hard courts Keys leads 2–0. Keys has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Siniakova has taken 0 sets to Keys's 6. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Siniakova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Katerina Siniakova | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 80% | 16/20 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 12/39 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 12/24 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 10/14 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 4/9 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 16/19 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 84% | 16/19 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Siniakova 0, Keys 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Siniakova
🏹 Frontrunner
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,181 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 18, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 26, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
May 30, 2019
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Siniakova | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Katerina Siniakova | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 14% | 1/7 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Siniakova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–4 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.98 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | -20.9% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.67u | -1.95u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Siniakova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (38% vs Siniakova's 25%).
| Opponent | Siniakova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 67 61 61 | W 60 61 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | L 36 57 | L 63 46 46 |
| Amanda Anisimova | L 16 46 | W 36 62 63 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 26 46 | L 36 61 46 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 64 64 | L 64 26 46 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 26 46 | L 67 67 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 16 62 57 | L 36 63 06 |
| Victoria Mboko | L 75 46 26 | W 63 57 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Madison Keys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Nikola Bartunkova
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Qinwen Zheng
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Liudmila Samsonova
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · 1st Round
Jun 21
Jessica Pegula
Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Rebeka Masarova
Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin · 1st Round
Jun 16
Yue Yuan
Berlin
Jun 15
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–47 matches
| Metric | Siniakova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 68% |
| Sets won | 53% | 65% |
| Games won | 52% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Siniakova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Siniakova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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