Karen Khachanov vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Karen Khachanov and Mackenzie McDonald have met 6 times since 2021; Karen Khachanov leads 6–0. Their first meeting came at Open 13 Provence - Marseille in 2021 on hard. On grass courts Khachanov leads 3–0. On hard courts Khachanov leads 3–0. Khachanov has won the last 6 meetings. Across all meetings Khachanov has taken 14 sets to McDonald's 3. Their most recent meeting: Karen Khachanov won at Wimbledon - London (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Khachanov | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Karen Khachanov | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 42% | 5/12 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 10/20 | 24% | 6/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 53% | 17/32 | 28% | 14/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 15% | 4/26 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 4/6 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 18% | 3/17 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 57% | 8/14 | 87% | 20/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 36% | 5/14 | 74% | 17/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Khachanov 2, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Khachanov
🤖 Servebot
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,470 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Karen Khachanov.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jun 30, 2025
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Jun 11, 2025
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 2nd Round
Sep 24, 2023
Zhuhai Open - Zhuhai
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 14, 2022
Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 28, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Mar 10, 2021
Open 13 Provence - Marseille
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Khachanov | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Karen Khachanov | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 5 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 10 or more | 43% | 3/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 14% | 1/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–5 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.47 | 1.96 |
| ROI % | -59.0% | -24.7% |
| Units P/L | -4.13u | -2.72u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Khachanov's 50%).
| Opponent | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | L 75 36 67 | L 62 16 26 |
| Terence Atmane | L 46 67 | W 63 61 |
| Bernard Tomic | L 26 46 | W 75 76 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 46 64 63 57 63 | L 46 57 |
| Adam Walton | W 62 63 | L 16 36 |
| Shintaro Mochizuki | W 61 36 64 | L 67 57 |
| Marco Trungelliti | W 76 57 61 76 | W 26 62 75 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 57 64 64 | W 64 36 63 |
| Jenson Brooksby | L 67 46 | W 64 62 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 36 67 | W 36 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Terence Atmane
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Bernard Tomic
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Flavio Cobolli
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Yannick Hanfmann
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Billy Harris
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Ethan Quinn
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · 1st Round
Jun 16
Jesper de Jong
French Open - Paris · 3rd Round
May 29
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–53 matches
| Metric | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 49% |
| Sets won | 49% | 48% |
| Games won | 51% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 3 | 0 |
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