Karen Khachanov vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Karen Khachanov and Mackenzie McDonald have met 6 times since 2021; Karen Khachanov leads 6–0. Their first meeting came at Open 13 Provence - Marseille in 2021 on hard. On grass courts Khachanov leads 3–0. On hard courts Khachanov leads 3–0. Khachanov has won the last 6 meetings. Across all meetings Khachanov has taken 14 sets to McDonald's 3. Their most recent meeting: Karen Khachanov won at Wimbledon - London (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Khachanov | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Karen Khachanov | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 8/16 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 9/19 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 21% | 6/28 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 5/7 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 26% | 5/19 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 71% | 12/17 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 47% | 8/17 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Khachanov 2, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Khachanov
🤖 Servebot
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 720 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Karen Khachanov.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jun 30, 2025
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Jun 11, 2025
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · 2nd Round
Sep 24, 2023
Zhuhai Open - Zhuhai
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 14, 2022
Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 28, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Mar 10, 2021
Open 13 Provence - Marseille
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Khachanov | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Karen Khachanov | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 80% | 12/15 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 5/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–5 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.94 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | +12.5% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.62u | -5.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 1 |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Khachanov has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs McDonald's 30%).
| Opponent | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | L 75 36 67 | L 62 16 26 |
| Terence Atmane | L 46 67 | W 63 61 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 46 64 63 57 63 | L 46 57 |
| Adam Walton | W 62 63 | L 16 36 |
| Shintaro Mochizuki | W 61 36 64 | L 67 57 |
| Marco Trungelliti | W 76 57 61 76 | W 26 62 75 |
| Jenson Brooksby | L 67 46 | W 64 62 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 36 67 | L 36 46 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 26 26 | L 26 26 36 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 64 67 36 | L 62 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Adrian Mannarino
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Arthur Fery
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alex Molcan
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Felix Auger-Aliassime
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Alexander Blockx
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 10
Alexander Blockx
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–51 matches
| Metric | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 41% |
| Sets won | 54% | 43% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 4 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Khachanov | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 3 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.