Juan Pablo Varillas vs Nicolas MejiaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Juan Pablo Varillas and Nicolas Mejia have met 3 times since 2022; Nicolas Mejia leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Ambato Challenger in 2022 on clay. On clay courts Mejia leads 2–1. Mejia has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Varillas has taken 3 sets to Mejia's 4. Their most recent meeting: Nicolas Mejia won at Bogota Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pablo Varillas | Mejia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Juan Pablo Varillas | Nicolas Mejia | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 26/36 | 59% | 23/39 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 8/27 | 14% | 4/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 18/63 | 30% | 20/67 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 6/17 | 48% | 15/31 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 91% | 10/11 | 50% | 16/32 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 43% | 10/23 | 50% | 16/32 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 26/38 | 68% | 23/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pablo Varillas 1, Mejia 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Mejia
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 11, 2026
Bogota Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 28, 2025
Bogota Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 21, 2022
Ambato Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Varillas | Mejia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Juan Pablo Varillas | Nicolas Mejia | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 3 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 93% | 13/14 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 57% | 8/14 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 14% | 2/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Varillas | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–2 | 11–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 2.46 |
| ROI % | +49.5% | +36.7% |
| Units P/L | +3.47u | +6.24u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Varillas | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 1,959 mi · 3,153 km |
| Route | SMR | CAN → USA → MEX |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mejia has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Varillas's 43%).
| Opponent | Varillas | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | W 64 76 | W 76 67 62 |
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L 46 26 | W 46 64 75 76 |
| Lucca Guercio | W 63 61 | W 63 67 63 |
| Franco Roncadelli | L 64 26 26 | W 64 62 |
| Zdenek Kolar | L 67 76 67 | W 26 64 76 |
| Hady Habib | W 75 36 63 | W 76 62 |
| Sebastian Gima | L 46 26 | W 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mili Poljicak
San Marino Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 1
Timofey Skatov
San Marino Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Francesco Maestrelli
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Jacopo Vasami
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nicolas Mejia
Bogota Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Bogota Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Luis Carlos Alvarez
Bogota Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Bruno Fernandez
Bogota Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Adam Walton
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Lorenzo Musetti
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Martin Landaluce
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 3
Matias Soto
Bogota Challenger · Final
Jul 12
Juan Pablo Varillas
Bogota Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Hernan Casanova
Bogota Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Santiago Rodriguez Taverna
Bogota Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 63–70 matches
| Metric | Varillas | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 59% |
| Sets won | 56% | 54% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Varillas | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Varillas | Mejia |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
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