Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luis Carlos AlvarezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇵🇪Juan Pablo Varillas
#232 · 30 yrs · R
4w31 meeting · sets 2–1
🇲🇽Luis Carlos Alvarez
#759 · 21 yrs · R
8w4Juan Pablo Varillas and Luis Carlos Alvarez have met 1 time since 2026; Juan Pablo Varillas leads 1–0. Across all meetings Varillas has taken 2 sets to Alvarez's 1. Their most recent meeting: Juan Pablo Varillas won at Bogota Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pablo Varillas | Carlos Alvarez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Juan Pablo Varillas | Luis Carlos Alvarez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 26/36 | 57% | 4/7 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 8/27 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 18/63 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 6/17 | 100% | 1/1 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 91% | 10/11 | 83% | 5/6 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 43% | 10/23 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 100% | 6/6 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 26/38 | 67% | 4/6 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pablo Varillas 0, Carlos Alvarez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Alvarez
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 55% vs 🧱 The Wall across 753 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Juan Pablo Varillas.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 8, 2026
Bogota Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Varillas | Alvarez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Juan Pablo Varillas | Luis Carlos Alvarez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 75% | 3/4 |
| 3 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/4 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Varillas | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–2 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 2.37 |
| ROI % | +49.5% | -20.5% |
| Units P/L | +3.47u | -0.82u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Varillas | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | SMR | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mili Poljicak
San Marino Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 1
Timofey Skatov
San Marino Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Francesco Maestrelli
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Jacopo Vasami
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nicolas Mejia
Bogota Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Bogota Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Luis Carlos Alvarez
Bogota Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Bruno Fernandez
Bogota Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Juan Pablo Varillas
Bogota Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Valerio Aboian
Bogota Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Hernan Casanova
Quito Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Felipe Rivadeneira
Quito Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 29
Nav Dayal
Futures 2026
Jun 15
Zsombor Velcz
M25 Harlingen 1 · 1st Round
Oct 29
Asahi Harazaki
M25 Norman 1 · 1st Round
Oct 22
Keegan Smith
M15 Fayetteville 1 · Final
Sep 21
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 12–63 matches
| Metric | Varillas | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 58% |
| Sets won | 56% | 55% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Varillas | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Varillas | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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