Jessica Pegula vs Mccartney KesslerPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

πΊπΈJessica Pegula
#4 Β· 32 yrs Β· Right-Handed
5w2 meetings Β· sets 4β0

πΊπΈMccartney Kessler
#95 Β· 26 yrs Β· Right-Handed
7wJessica Pegula and Mccartney Kessler have met 2 times since 2025; Jessica Pegula leads 2β0. Their first meeting came at ATX Open - Austin in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 2β0. Pegula has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Pegula leading those 1β0. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 4 sets to Kessler's 0. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches Β· Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Kessler | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Mccartney Kessler | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 31/51 | 67% | 14/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 27% | 6/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 27/66 | 30% | 13/43 |
| Covers β1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 29/53 | 50% | 12/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 69% | 9/13 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 39/44 | 80% | 16/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 31/44 | 70% | 14/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 2, Kessler 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
π The Complete Package
Kessler
π₯ Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
π The Complete Package vs π₯ Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 22, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard Β· 2nd Round
Mar 2, 2025
ATX Open - Austin
H Hard Β· Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets Β· Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Kessler | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Mccartney Kessler | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 17/19 | 60% | 3/5 |
| 5 or more | 37% | 7/19 | 40% | 2/5 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/5 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches Β· Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14β4 | 1β4 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 1.83 |
| ROI % | +4.8% | -77.0% |
| Units P/L | +0.86u | -3.85u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced Β· Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Kessler's 30%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 57 26 | L 16 67 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 16 64 63 | W 63 62 |
| Simona Waltert | W 63 62 | W 76 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 36 | L 67 16 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 36 63 62 | W 26 64 62 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | W 63 75 | L 26 76 46 |
| Iva Jovic | W 46 63 61 | L 67 67 |
| Madison Keys | W 76 76 | L 36 16 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 64 36 | L 75 36 46 |
| Kimberly Birrell | L 61 36 36 | L 76 67 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York Β· Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York Β· Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York Β· 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York Β· 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York Β· 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York Β· 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· Semifinals
Aug 22
Ekaterina Alexandrova
U.S. Open - New York Β· 1st Round
Aug 30
Caty Mcnally
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· 1st Round
Aug 14
Anna Kalinskaya
National Bank Open - Toronto Β· 2nd Round
Aug 5
Cadence Brace
National Bank Open - Toronto Β· 1st Round
Aug 3
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis Β· 1st Round
Jul 29
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London Β· 2nd Round
Jul 1
Oleksandra Oliynykova
Wimbledon - London Β· 1st Round
Jun 29
Madison Keys
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne Β· Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won Β· Last 12 months Β· 43β66 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 77% | 49% |
| Sets won | 69% | 48% |
| Games won | 57% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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