Jesper de Jong vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Jesper de Jong and Matteo Arnaldi have met 4 times since 2022; Matteo Arnaldi leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Rome 1 Challenger in 2022 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts Arnaldi leads 2–0. Arnaldi has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Jong has taken 2 sets to Arnaldi's 7. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Vienna (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Jong | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jesper de Jong | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 11/25 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 8/27 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 22/52 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 27% | 9/33 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 35% | 6/17 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 65% | 13/20 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 75% | 15/20 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 55% | 11/20 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Jong 0, Arnaldi 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Jong
💥 Big Hitter
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,211 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jesper de Jong.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Oct 18, 2025
Vienna
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 25, 2023
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag
C Clay · 1st Round
Oct 6, 2022
Alicante Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 27, 2022
Rome 1 Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Jong | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jesper de Jong | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 5 or more | 63% | 10/16 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 10 or more | 25% | 4/16 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 15 or more | 19% | 3/16 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–7 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.10 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -9.7% | -33.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.55u | -2.66u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,731 mi · 2,785 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Jong's 10%).
| Opponent | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hugo Gaston | L 67 16 | W 61 57 76 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 67 46 16 | L 46 46 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 62 57 46 | L 16 64 36 |
| Nuno Borges | L 36 06 | W 63 67 76 |
| Gianluca Cadenasso | L 46 75 36 | W 16 61 60 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | L 46 46 | W 62 63 |
| Cristian Garin | L 57 61 16 | L 26 46 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 67 46 | L 76 46 46 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 36 | L 46 26 36 |
| Tristan Schoolkate | W 46 76 64 | W 76 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Adam Walton
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Hugo Gaston
Quebec City Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Dane Sweeny
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Alex Michelsen
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Sebastian Baez
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Vilius Gaubas
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 13
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–59 matches
| Metric | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 50% |
| Sets won | 46% | 49% |
| Games won | 50% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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