Jesper de Jong vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Jesper de Jong and Matteo Arnaldi have met 4 times since 2022; Matteo Arnaldi leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Rome 1 Challenger in 2022 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts Arnaldi leads 2–0. Arnaldi has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Jong has taken 2 sets to Arnaldi's 7. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Vienna (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Jong | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jesper de Jong | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 12/24 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 9/25 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 43% | 21/49 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 29% | 10/34 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 31% | 4/13 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 14/20 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 76% | 16/21 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 12/21 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Jong 0, Arnaldi 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Jong
👑 The Complete Package
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matteo Arnaldi.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Oct 18, 2025
Vienna
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 25, 2023
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag
C Clay · 1st Round
Oct 6, 2022
Alicante Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 27, 2022
Rome 1 Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Jong | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jesper de Jong | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 8/12 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 2/12 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–7 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.97 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | -35.4% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | -4.25u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 793 mi · 1,276 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | FRA → POR | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (44% vs Jong's 0%).
| Opponent | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hugo Gaston | L 67 16 | W 61 57 76 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 67 46 16 | L 46 46 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 62 57 46 | L 16 64 36 |
| Nuno Borges | L 36 06 | W 63 67 76 |
| Gianluca Cadenasso | L 46 75 36 | W 16 61 60 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | L 46 46 | W 62 63 |
| Cristian Garin | L 57 61 16 | L 26 46 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 67 46 | L 76 46 46 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 36 | L 46 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
David Jorda Sanchis
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Harold Mayot
St. Tropez Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Andrea Guerrieri
St. Tropez Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Remy Bertola
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Samuel Heredia
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NED-COL 4-0 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Zizou Bergs
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Francesco Passaro
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Adam Walton
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–58 matches
| Metric | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 52% |
| Sets won | 47% | 50% |
| Games won | 50% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Jong | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.