Jelena Ostapenko vs Paula BadosaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#31 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 6–6
🇪🇸Paula Badosa
#83 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5wJelena Ostapenko and Paula Badosa have met 5 times since 2020; Jelena Ostapenko leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2020 on clay. On hard courts Ostapenko leads 2–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Ostapenko has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Ostapenko has taken 6 sets to Badosa's 6. Their most recent meeting: Jelena Ostapenko won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ostapenko | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jelena Ostapenko | Paula Badosa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 15/22 | 78% | 18/23 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 9/17 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 16/39 | 33% | 13/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 12/22 | 55% | 17/31 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 9/15 | 50% | 4/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 3/6 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 70% | 16/23 | 83% | 19/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 15/23 | 78% | 18/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ostapenko 1, Badosa 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ostapenko
👑 The Complete Package
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Aug 8, 2024
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 17, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jan 10, 2022
Sydney Tennis Classic - Sydney
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 15, 2021
St. Petersburg Ladies Trophy - St. Petersburg
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 3, 2020
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ostapenko | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jelena Ostapenko | Paula Badosa | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 94% | 16/17 |
| 3 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 71% | 12/17 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 35% | 6/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–2 | 13–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.74 | 1.70 |
| ROI % | -7.7% | +18.2% |
| Units P/L | -0.54u | +3.09u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ostapenko has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Badosa's 67%).
| Opponent | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Panna Udvardy | W 36 61 62 | W 64 61 |
| Simona Waltert | W 62 75 | W 75 75 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 62 60 | W 63 76 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | W 61 62 | L 46 26 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 26 62 63 | W 26 62 75 |
| Oksana Selekhmeteva | W 57 76 62 | L 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Antonia Ruzic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Harriet Dart
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Zeynep Sonmez
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Panna Udvardy
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Francesca Jones
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Magda Linette
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Mayar Sherif
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Panna Udvardy
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Katarzyna Kawa
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · 1st Round
Jul 22
Tamara Zidansek
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · Semifinals
Jul 18
Panna Udvardy
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Alevtina Ibragimova
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Anhelina Kalinina
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · 1st Round
Jul 14
Simona Waltert
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–39 matches
| Metric | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 59% |
| Sets won | 56% | 59% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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