Jelena Ostapenko vs Paula BadosaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 8–6
🇪🇸Paula Badosa
#58 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Jelena Ostapenko and Paula Badosa have met 6 times since 2020; Jelena Ostapenko leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2020 on clay. On hard courts Ostapenko leads 3–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Ostapenko has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Ostapenko has taken 8 sets to Badosa's 6. Their most recent meeting: Jelena Ostapenko won at China Open - Beijing (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ostapenko | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jelena Ostapenko | Paula Badosa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 74% | 20/27 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 10/18 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 17/42 | 31% | 14/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 13/23 | 51% | 19/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 11/17 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 3/6 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 69% | 18/26 | 88% | 21/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 83% | 20/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ostapenko 2, Badosa 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Jelena Ostapenko and Paula Badosa are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 3, 2026
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 8, 2024
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 17, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jan 10, 2022
Sydney Tennis Classic - Sydney
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 15, 2021
St. Petersburg Ladies Trophy - St. Petersburg
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 3, 2020
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ostapenko | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jelena Ostapenko | Paula Badosa | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–4 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.89 | 1.77 |
| ROI % | -34.0% | -4.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.04u | -0.64u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 592 mi · 952 km | 10,936 mi · 17,599 km |
| Route | POR → ROU | BRA → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ostapenko has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Badosa's 60%).
| Opponent | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Panna Udvardy | W 36 61 62 | W 64 61 |
| Simona Waltert | W 62 75 | W 75 75 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | W 61 62 | L 46 26 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 26 62 63 | W 26 62 75 |
| Oksana Selekhmeteva | W 57 76 62 | L 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Daria Kasatkina
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Nadia Podoroska
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Semifinals
Sep 19
Mary Stoiana
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Jazmin Ortenzi
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Justina Mikulskyte
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Sep 16
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Daria Kasatkina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–45 matches
| Metric | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 60% |
| Sets won | 57% | 59% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ostapenko | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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