Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Erste Bank Open - Vienna
- Level
- ATP 500
- Round
- 1st Round Qualifying
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 24 · 5:00 AM ET
Jacob Fearnley and Pablo Carreno Busta meet next at the Erste Bank Open - Vienna on October 24 on hard.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Fearnley | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jacob Fearnley | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 22/35 | 60% | 18/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 45% | 10/22 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 23/57 | 40% | 19/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 46% | 21/46 | 54% | 14/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 6/11 | 55% | 11/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 14/27 | 73% | 8/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 96% | 26/27 | 88% | 21/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 22/27 | 75% | 18/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fearnley
🪃 Counterpuncher
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 980 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Pablo Carreno Busta.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Fearnley and Busta have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fearnley | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jacob Fearnley | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 20/20 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 55% | 11/20 | 55% | 6/11 |
| 5 or more | 40% | 8/20 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 10 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fearnley | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–8 | 5–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 2.69 |
| ROI % | -9.2% | -5.6% |
| Units P/L | -1.94u | -0.56u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fearnley | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,480 mi · 2,382 km | 5,930 mi · 9,543 km |
| Route | POR → BEL → AUT | CHN → AUT |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Fearnley's 50%).
| Opponent | Fearnley | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Luca Nardi | W 62 64 | W 67 64 76 |
| Alejo Sanchez Quilez | W 61 62 | W 36 75 63 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 76 64 | W 63 64 |
| Roberto Carballes Baena | W 76 63 | W 64 63 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 46 | L 67 16 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 36 63 36 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 62 | W 36 63 64 |
| Martin Damm | L | W 63 63 |
| Arthur Cazaux | L 26 63 16 | W |
| Quentin Halys | L 36 46 | L 64 57 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Clement Chidekh
European Open - Brussels · 2nd Round
Oct 21
Hugo Gaston
European Open - Brussels · 1st Round
Oct 20
Damir Dzumhur
Olbia Challenger · Final
Oct 18
Luca Nardi
Olbia Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 17
Maxim Mrva
Olbia Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 16
Jan Kumstat
Olbia Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 15
George Loffhagen
Olbia Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 13
Inaki Montes-De La Torre
Porto Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–63 matches
| Metric | Fearnley | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 60% |
| Sets won | 55% | 58% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |