Iga Swiatek vs Jelena OstapenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇵🇱Iga Swiatek
#9 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 3–12
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Iga Swiatek and Jelena Ostapenko have met 6 times since 2019; Jelena Ostapenko leads 6–0. Their first meeting came at Birmingham in 2019 on grass. On hard courts Ostapenko leads 4–0. Ostapenko has won the last 6 meetings. Across all meetings Swiatek has taken 3 sets to Ostapenko's 12. Their most recent meeting: Jelena Ostapenko won at Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Swiatek | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Iga Swiatek | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 79% | 33/42 | 71% | 17/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 63% | 10/16 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 19/58 | 40% | 17/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 32/56 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/1 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 6/9 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 37/43 | 69% | 18/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 33/43 | 65% | 17/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Swiatek 0, Ostapenko 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Swiatek
👑 The Complete Package
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Apr 19, 2025
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 14, 2025
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 3, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Feb 16, 2022
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 12, 2021
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 4th Round
Jun 19, 2019
Birmingham
G Grass · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Swiatek | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Iga Swiatek | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| 1 or more | 77% | 13/17 | 100% | 6/6 |
| 3 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 83% | 5/6 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Swiatek | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–3 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.22 | 1.89 |
| ROI % | +1.3% | -34.0% |
| Units P/L | +0.24u | -2.04u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Swiatek | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 592 mi · 952 km |
| Route | ROU | POR → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 9 shared opponents, both Swiatek and Ostapenko posted a 44% win rate.
| Opponent | Swiatek | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elise Mertens | L 67 36 | L 26 63 36 |
| Qinwen Zheng | L 57 36 | W 46 64 64 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 57 64 46 | L 64 36 26 |
| Sara Bejlek | W 60 63 | L 46 36 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 67 26 | W 64 75 |
| Magda Linette | W 64 64 | L 26 62 26 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | W 61 16 61 | W 61 62 |
| Elisabetta Cocciaretto | W 61 60 | W 75 64 |
| Mirra Andreeva | L 63 46 36 | L 75 26 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Iva Jovic
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Donna Vekic
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Xinyu Gao
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Marie Bouzkova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Nadia Podoroska
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Xiyu Wang
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–58 matches
| Metric | Swiatek | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 57% |
| Sets won | 70% | 57% |
| Games won | 60% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Swiatek | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 3 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Swiatek | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 4 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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