Holger Rune vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Holger Rune and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 4 times since 2022; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Cordoba Open - Cordoba in 2022 on clay. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Rune has taken 6 sets to Baena's 5. Their most recent meeting: Holger Rune won at Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rune | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Holger Rune | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 2/4 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 1/2 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 50% | 3/6 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 40% | 2/5 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 100% | 1/1 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 1/3 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 67% | 2/3 | 83% | 20/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 2/3 | 58% | 14/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rune 1, Carballes Baena 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rune
💥 Big Hitter
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 25, 2025
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 28, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 7, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Feb 1, 2022
Cordoba Open - Cordoba
C Clay · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rune | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–2 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -17.5% | -54.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.70u | -3.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rune | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | — |
| Route | JPN → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daniel Altmaier
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Kyrian Jacquet
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Grigor Dimitrov
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Iliyan Radulov
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · Quarterfinals
Oct 17
Marton Fucsovics
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 2nd Round
Oct 16
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 4th Round
Oct 7
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 6–47 matches
| Metric | Rune | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 51% |
| Sets won | 60% | 51% |
| Games won | 53% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rune | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rune | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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