Holger Rune vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇩🇰Holger Rune
#133 · 23 yrs · R
45w4 meetings · sets 6–5
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#209 · 33 yrs · R
5wHolger Rune and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 4 times since 2022; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Cordoba Open - Cordoba in 2022 on clay. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Rune has taken 6 sets to Baena's 5. Their most recent meeting: Holger Rune won at Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rune | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Holger Rune | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 6/8 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 2/4 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 4/12 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 6/12 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 53% | 9/17 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 17% | 1/6 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 7/8 | 85% | 22/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 6/8 | 58% | 15/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rune 1, Carballes Baena 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rune
🎯 Baseliner
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 790 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Holger Rune.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 25, 2025
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 28, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 7, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Feb 1, 2022
Cordoba Open - Cordoba
C Clay · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rune | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | - | 1.74 |
| ROI % | - | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | - | -2.84u |
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rune has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Rune | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Baez | W 75 64 | L 46 26 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 75 63 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · Quarterfinals
Oct 17
Marton Fucsovics
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 2nd Round
Oct 16
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 4th Round
Oct 7
Ugo Humbert
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Sebastian Baez
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Jenson Brooksby
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Sep 28
Ethan Quinn
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Sep 27
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mackenzie McDonald
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mark Ceban
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Sebastian Ofner
Parma Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Stefano Travaglia
Parma Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Miguel Damas
Parma Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 12–47 matches
| Metric | Rune | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 55% |
| Sets won | 64% | 54% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rune | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rune | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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