Frances Tiafoe vs Kei NishikoriPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Frances Tiafoe and Kei Nishikori have met 2 times since 2018; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Vienna in 2018 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Tiafoe has taken 3 sets to Nishikori's 2. Their most recent meeting: Frances Tiafoe won at Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tiafoe | Nishikori | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Frances Tiafoe | Kei Nishikori | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 20/33 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 5/14 | 40% | 4/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 18/47 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 15/28 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 68% | 13/19 | 56% | 5/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 10/20 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 96% | 27/28 | 82% | 9/11 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 20/28 | 45% | 5/11 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tiafoe 1, Nishikori 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Nishikori
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Oct 1, 2026
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 12, 2018
Vienna
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tiafoe | Nishikori | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Frances Tiafoe | Kei Nishikori | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 67% | 4/6 |
| 3 or more | 89% | 16/18 | 33% | 2/6 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 10/18 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 3/18 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.04 | 2.70 |
| ROI % | +23.4% | -15.7% |
| Units P/L | +4.21u | -1.41u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | JPN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Nishikori's 50%).
| Opponent | Tiafoe | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Rei Sakamoto | W 63 76 75 | L 46 67 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 63 46 62 | W 64 16 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Yannick Hanfmann
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Arthur Fils
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Kei Nishikori
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Valentin Vacherot
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Frances Tiafoe
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Rei Sakamoto
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Michael Antonius
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Sebastian Ofner
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 12
Francisco Comesana
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Michael Zheng
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 21–63 matches
| Metric | Tiafoe | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 71% | 52% |
| Sets won | 63% | 50% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tiafoe | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tiafoe | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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