Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Felix Auger-Aliassime and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 1 time since 2020; Felix Auger-Aliassime leads 1–0. Across all meetings Auger-Aliassime has taken 2 sets to Busta's 0. Their most recent meeting: Felix Auger-Aliassime won at ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam (2020).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 3rd Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 11 · 12:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 3.61 or longer, Pablo Carreno Busta has won 6 of 29 (21%). That is level with the 21% the price implied.
At 1.29 or shorter, Felix Auger-Aliassime has won 101 of 131 (77%). The price implied 80%, so Felix Auger-Aliassime has fallen 3 points short of it.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Felix Auger-Aliassime meets Pablo Carreno Busta in the third round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on October 11 on hard courts. The Canadian, ranked 5th, arrives with a 60% win rate over his last 10 matches and has played twice in 14 days. Carreno Busta sits at 65th and has built momentum with two consecutive wins, though he has played five matches in that same span.
Auger-Aliassime leads their head-to-head 1-0. Both men have faced similar opposition recently; Auger-Aliassime defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Camilo Ugo Carabelli, and Jiri Lehecka while Carreno Busta fell to each of them. Carreno Busta's recent run came by winning against Mariano Navone, a player Auger-Aliassime lost to in his own stretch.
Auger-Aliassime built his ranking on a big serve and weapons off the ground; he converts 65% of his hard-court matches. Carreno Busta plays a reactive game, capitalizing when opponents falter; his 55% hard-court record reflects inconsistency against steady competition. The question is whether Auger-Aliassime's pace and service game can control points, or whether Carreno Busta's counterattacking instincts find their range on a faster court.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Auger-Aliassime | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Felix Auger-Aliassime | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 64% | 25/39 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 19% | 3/16 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 17/55 | 45% | 23/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 23/47 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 66% | 23/35 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 30/32 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 25/32 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Auger-Aliassime 1, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Auger-Aliassime
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,089 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Feb 15, 2020
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Auger-Aliassime | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Felix Auger-Aliassime | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 46% | 6/13 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 10 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Auger-Aliassime | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–3 | 7–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 2.23 |
| ROI % | -15.7% | -6.2% |
| Units P/L | -1.41u | -0.81u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Auger-Aliassime | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 5 |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Auger-Aliassime has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Busta's 50%).
| Opponent | Auger-Aliassime | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 46 76 75 | L 63 57 57 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 63 75 61 | W 46 76 64 |
| Mariano Navone | L 67 67 | W 46 75 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 46 26 | L 46 26 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 76 | W 63 64 |
| Quentin Halys | W 76 46 63 | L 64 57 36 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 63 76 | L 16 67 64 26 |
| Vilius Gaubas | W 63 64 | W 61 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 67 76 63 67 61 | L 36 36 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 63 64 | W 46 76 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Karen Khachanov
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Arthur Rinderknech
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CAN-FRA · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Quentin Halys
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CAN-FRA · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Karen Khachanov
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rinky Hijikata
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 57–67 matches
| Metric | Auger-Aliassime | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 63% |
| Sets won | 64% | 58% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Auger-Aliassime | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Auger-Aliassime | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |