Federico Arnaboldi vs Juan Pablo VarillasPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Federico Arnaboldi
#478 · 26 yrs · R
33 meetings · sets 1–6
🇵🇪Juan Pablo Varillas
#200 · 30 yrs · R
Federico Arnaboldi and Juan Pablo Varillas have met 3 times since 2023; Juan Pablo Varillas leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Sanremo Challenger in 2023 on clay. On clay courts Varillas leads 3–0. Varillas has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Arnaboldi has taken 1 sets to Varillas's 6. Their most recent meeting: Juan Pablo Varillas won at Genoa Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Arnaboldi | Pablo Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Federico Arnaboldi | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 27/40 | 62% | 24/39 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 13/32 | 30% | 8/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 26/72 | 35% | 23/66 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 22/44 | 25% | 5/20 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 14/24 | 75% | 12/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 8/12 | 52% | 14/27 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 32/40 | 89% | 33/37 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 27/40 | 65% | 24/37 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Arnaboldi 0, Pablo Varillas 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Arnaboldi
🪃 Counterpuncher
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Federico Arnaboldi and Juan Pablo Varillas are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,190 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 8, 2026
Genoa Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Sep 2, 2026
Como Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 28, 2023
Sanremo Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Arnaboldi | Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Federico Arnaboldi | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 53% | 9/17 |
| 5 or more | 28% | 5/18 | 41% | 7/17 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Arnaboldi | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–10 | 12–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.87 | 2.12 |
| ROI % | -21.7% | +32.2% |
| Units P/L | -4.11u | +5.79u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Arnaboldi | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | 462 mi · 744 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ITA | ARG |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Varillas has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Arnaboldi's 0%).
| Opponent | Arnaboldi | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Jay Clarke | L 16 16 | W 67 75 61 |
| Francesco Forti | L 63 36 16 | W 64 36 76 |
| Alexander Donski | L 36 63 46 | L 57 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Kalin Ivanovski
Palermo Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Andrea De Marchi
Palermo Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Massimo Giunta
Bari Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Svyatoslav Gulin
Bari Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Iannaccone
Bari Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Marvin Moeller
Genoa 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Florian Broska
Genoa 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 21
Maximilian Marterer
Biella Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 13
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
Buenos Aires Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Murkel Dellien
Buenos Aires Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Tomas Farjat
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, PER-PAR 3-2 · Rubber 5
Sep 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, PER-PAR 3-2 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Genoa Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 66–72 matches
| Metric | Arnaboldi | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 59% |
| Sets won | 55% | 55% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Arnaboldi | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Arnaboldi | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 3 |
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