Elise Mertens vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#24 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 6–2
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Elise Mertens and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2024; Elise Mertens leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart in 2024 on clay. On clay courts Mertens leads 2–0. Mertens has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Mertens has taken 6 sets to Maria's 2. Their most recent meeting: Elise Mertens won at French Open - Paris (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mertens | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elise Mertens | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 21/29 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 7/20 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 15/49 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 58% | 19/33 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 5/12 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 4/7 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 21/27 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mertens 1, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Elise Mertens and Tatjana Maria are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 25, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Jan 30, 2025
Singapore Open - Singapore
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 16, 2024
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mertens | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elise Mertens | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 64% | 9/14 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 43% | 6/14 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–5 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | +12.4% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | +1.73u | +2.03u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,715 mi · 2,760 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL → AUT | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mertens has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Maria's 38%).
| Opponent | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Anna Bondar | W 36 64 64 | L 67 57 |
| Marie Bouzkova | W 64 64 | L 57 06 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 61 | L 76 57 06 |
| Tereza Valentova | L 46 16 | W 63 75 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 46 76 63 | W 64 63 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 26 | L 26 06 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | L 64 36 46 | W 64 63 |
| Emma Navarro | W 62 62 | L 57 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Diane Parry
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Final
Aug 30
Nikola Bartunkova
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Semifinals
Aug 29
Yuliia Starodubtseva
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Panna Udvardy
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Diane Parry
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Anna Bondar
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–60 matches
| Metric | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 50% |
| Sets won | 58% | 52% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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