Elise Mertens vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#14 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 6–2
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4TitleElise Mertens and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2024; Elise Mertens leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart in 2024 on clay. On clay courts Mertens leads 2–0. Mertens has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Mertens has taken 6 sets to Maria's 2. Their most recent meeting: Elise Mertens won at French Open - Paris (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mertens | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elise Mertens | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 24/34 | 94% | 30/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 17/55 | 17% | 10/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 21/38 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 8/16 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 5/8 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 28/31 | 86% | 31/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 24/31 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mertens 1, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Elise Mertens and Tatjana Maria are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 25, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Jan 30, 2025
Singapore Open - Singapore
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 16, 2024
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mertens | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elise Mertens | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 12/16 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 9/16 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.05 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | +23.4% | -6.7% |
| Units P/L | +3.74u | -0.87u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| Distance | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km | — |
| Route | SGP → ROU | TUR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mertens has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Maria's 40%).
| Opponent | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 62 36 63 | W 46 61 62 |
| Katie Volynets | W 60 46 75 | W 62 64 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | W 16 64 62 | L 76 26 36 |
| Anna Bondar | W 36 64 64 | L 67 57 |
| Marie Bouzkova | W 64 64 | L 57 06 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 61 | L 76 57 06 |
| Tereza Valentova | L 46 16 | W 63 75 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 46 76 63 | W 64 63 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 26 | L 26 06 |
| Emma Navarro | W 62 62 | L 57 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 10
Iga Swiatek
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Coco Gauff
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Katie Volynets
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Maria Timofeeva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–60 matches
| Metric | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 53% |
| Sets won | 59% | 55% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mertens | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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