Head-to-Head

Denis Shapovalov vs Kei NishikoriPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇨🇦Denis Shapovalov

#42 · 27 yrs · L

2–2

4 meetings · sets 4–5

🇯🇵Kei Nishikori

Unranked

Denis Shapovalov and Kei Nishikori have met 4 times since 2018; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Acapulco in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Nishikori leads 2–1. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 4 sets to Nishikori's 5. Their most recent meeting: Denis Shapovalov won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2025).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Shapovalov	Nishikori
Indicator	Denis Shapovalov		Kei Nishikori
Wins in straight sets	45%	10/22	45%	5/11
Wins a set when losing	35%	6/17	40%	4/10
Goes to a deciding set	46%	18/39	48%	10/21
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	35%	9/26	42%	5/12
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	69%	9/13	56%	5/9
Tiebreak sets won	62%	8/13	40%	2/5
Wins after taking set 1	82%	18/22	82%	9/11
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	45%	10/22	45%	5/11

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 1, Nishikori 2).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Shapovalov

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Nishikori

🏹 Frontrunner

Fast startsAggressive openersMomentum-drivenStrong holds

Matchup analysis

💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

4 career meetings, newest first

Apr 26, 2025

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

C Clay · 2nd Round

Shapovalov

Dec 31, 2024

Hong Kong

H Hard · Round of 32

Nishikori

Aug 2, 2018

Washington

H Hard · Round of 16

6¹7⁷

Nishikori

Feb 28, 2018

Acapulco

H Hard · Round of 32

6³7⁷

Shapovalov

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Shapovalov	Nishikori
Outcome	Denis Shapovalov		Kei Nishikori
1 or more	100%	17/17	67%	4/6
3 or more	82%	14/17	33%	2/6
5 or more	71%	12/17	17%	1/6
10 or more	41%	7/17	0%	0/6
15 or more	6%	1/17	0%	0/6
20 or more	0%	0/17	0%	0/6

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Shapovalov	Nishikori
W-L	12–5	4–5
Avg odds	2.15	2.70
ROI %	+12.3%	-15.7%
Units P/L	+2.09u	-1.41u

Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Shapovalov	Nishikori
Countries	2	1
Events	2	1
Matches	7	1
Distance	2,080 mi · 3,347 km	0 mi · 0 km
Route	CHN → JPN	JPN

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Shapovalov has a higher win rate against shared opponents (33% vs Nishikori's 0%).

Opponent	Shapovalov	Nishikori
Vit Kopriva	W 62 63	L
Rafael Jodar	L 57 64 57	L 36 26
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	L 26 16	L 63 46 26

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Shapovalov

LWWLWWWL

Carlos Alcaraz

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals

Oct 4

Alejandro Tabilo

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round

Oct 3

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round

Oct 1

Hubert Hurkacz

Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals

76⁸

Sep 28

Adrian Mannarino

Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals

6⁶7

Sep 27

Vit Kopriva

Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round

Sep 25

Tallon Griekspoor

Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round

76³

Sep 24

Ben Shelton

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

6³7

76⁵

Sep 5

Nishikori

LLWWLWLL

Frances Tiafoe

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round

Oct 1

Rei Sakamoto

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying

6³7

Aug 28

Michael Antonius

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying

Aug 27

Sebastian Ofner

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying

Aug 25

Marco Trungelliti

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round Qualifying

Aug 12

Francisco Comesana

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying

Aug 11

Michael Zheng

National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round Qualifying

Aug 1

Rafael Jodar

Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round

Jul 30

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ Shapovalovlevel↓ Nishikori

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 21–45 matches

Metric	Shapovalov	Nishikori
Matches won	56%	52%
Sets won	52%	50%
Games won	51%	50%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

Stage	Shapovalov	Nishikori
ATP 500	1	1
ATP 250	0	1
ATP Masters 1000	1	0

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

Surface	Shapovalov	Nishikori
Hard	1	2
Clay	1	0

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Denis Shapovalov vs Kei Nishikori FAQ

The head-to-head is level at 2–2 over 4 meetings.

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Style Matchup

Previous meetings

Prop Research

Player ROI

Travel

Common opponents

Recent Form

Rivalry momentum

Win rate

Record by tier

By surface

More Shapovalov rivalries

Denis Shapovalov vs Kei Nishikori FAQ

Who leads the Denis Shapovalov vs Kei Nishikori head-to-head?

Who won the last Denis Shapovalov vs Kei Nishikori match?

How many times have Denis Shapovalov and Kei Nishikori played?

Who leads the Denis Shapovalov vs Kei Nishikori head-to-head on hard courts?

When did Denis Shapovalov and Kei Nishikori last play each other?