Denis Shapovalov vs Kei NishikoriPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Denis Shapovalov and Kei Nishikori have met 4 times since 2018; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Acapulco in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Nishikori leads 2–1. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 4 sets to Nishikori's 5. Their most recent meeting: Denis Shapovalov won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Nishikori | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Kei Nishikori | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 8/18 | 50% | 4/8 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 5/18 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 15/36 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 30% | 7/23 | 44% | 4/9 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 62% | 8/13 | 80% | 4/5 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 60% | 6/10 | 50% | 2/4 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 15/18 | 86% | 6/7 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 44% | 8/18 | 57% | 4/7 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 1, Nishikori 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Nishikori
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,047 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 26, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Dec 31, 2024
Hong Kong
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 2, 2018
Washington
H Hard · Round of 16
Feb 28, 2018
Acapulco
H Hard · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 1–1 |
| Avg odds | 2.01 | 3.62 |
| ROI % | -7.8% | +10.5% |
| Units P/L | -0.86u | +0.21u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 1,847 mi · 2,972 km | — |
| Route | MEX → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 2 shared opponents, both Shapovalov and Nishikori posted a 0% win rate.
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Jodar | L 57 64 57 | L 36 26 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | L 26 16 | L 63 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Adrian Mannarino
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Gea
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Final
Aug 1
Cameron Norrie
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Semifinals
Jul 31
Dalibor Svrcina
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Rinky Hijikata
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 29
Pablo Carreno Busta
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Juncheng Shang
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Jack Kennedy
Savannah Challenger · 2nd Round
Apr 22
Colton Smith
Savannah Challenger · 1st Round
Apr 20
Yibing Wu
Sarasota Challenger · 2nd Round
Apr 9
Nicolas Kicker
Sarasota Challenger · 1st Round
Apr 7
Clement Tabur
Cherbourg Challenger · 1st Round
Mar 9
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Thionville Challenger · 2nd Round
Mar 4
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 14–39 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 46% | 57% |
| Sets won | 43% | 54% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.