Daniel Elahi Galan vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniel Elahi Galan and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2022; Matteo Arnaldi leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2022 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Arnaldi has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Galan has taken 4 sets to Arnaldi's 5. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Beijing (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Elahi Galan | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniel Elahi Galan | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 14/23 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 11/25 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 20/48 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 27% | 3/11 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 78% | 14/18 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 11/24 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 71% | 17/24 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 14/24 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Elahi Galan 1, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Galan
🏹 Frontrunner
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 26, 2023
Beijing
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
May 28, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Aug 30, 2022
US Open
H Hard · 3rd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Galan | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniel Elahi Galan | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 8/12 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 6/12 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Galan | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–5 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.01 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | +7.1% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.71u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Galan | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| Distance | 910 mi · 1,465 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | POL → BUL | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Galan's 0%).
| Opponent | Galan | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Federico Agustin Gomez | L 57 46 | W 63 57 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Calvin Hemery
Plovdiv 4 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 21
Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo
Szczecin Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Szczecin Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Marko Topo
Tulln Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Federico Agustin Gomez
Todi Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 12
Murkel Dellien
Todi Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 10
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Plovdiv 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Unknown Player
Plovdiv 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–48 matches
| Metric | Galan | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 48% | 52% |
| Sets won | 49% | 50% |
| Games won | 49% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Galan | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Galan | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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