Casper Ruud vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Casper Ruud and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 4 times since 2017; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Rio de Janeiro in 2017 on clay. On clay courts they are level 2–2. Across all meetings Ruud has taken 6 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ruud | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Casper Ruud | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 77% | 24/31 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 15% | 2/13 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 20% | 9/44 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 20/36 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 4/7 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 11/22 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 93% | 25/27 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ruud 0, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ruud
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Casper Ruud.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 22, 2022
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 15, 2021
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jul 31, 2019
Kitzbuhel
C Clay · Round of 32
Feb 22, 2017
Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ruud | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Casper Ruud | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 2/6 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–3 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.59 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | +4.7% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.42u | -1.18u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ruud has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Busta's 38%).
| Opponent | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L | L 36 64 16 |
| Mariano Navone | L 57 26 | W 46 75 63 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 63 64 | L 16 67 64 26 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 63 64 | W 63 76 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 63 61 | L 36 36 |
| Quentin Halys | W 61 76 | L 64 57 36 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 57 67 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 61 62 64 | W 64 26 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Learner Tien
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Bu Yunchaokete
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Luciano Darderi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Francisco Cerundolo
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Fnu Nidunjianzan
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NOR-CHN 4-0 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Rigele Te
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NOR-CHN 4-0 · Rubber 1
Sep 18
Christopher O'Connell
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Joao Fonseca
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–58 matches
| Metric | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 70% | 62% |
| Sets won | 64% | 58% |
| Games won | 55% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
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