Casper Ruud vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Casper Ruud and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 4 times since 2017; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Rio de Janeiro in 2017 on clay. On clay courts they are level 2–2. Across all meetings Ruud has taken 6 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ruud | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Casper Ruud | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 77% | 23/30 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 23% | 3/13 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 10/43 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 58% | 21/36 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 3/6 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 10/19 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ruud 0, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ruud
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 554 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 22, 2022
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 15, 2021
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jul 31, 2019
Kitzbuhel
C Clay · Round of 32
Feb 22, 2017
Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ruud | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Casper Ruud | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 5/5 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 80% | 4/5 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 20% | 1/5 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 1/5 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–3 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.75 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -48.8% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.44u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ruud has a higher win rate against shared opponents (86% vs Busta's 43%).
| Opponent | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Denis Shapovalov | W 63 64 | W 63 76 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 63 64 | W 63 76 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 63 61 | L 36 36 |
| Quentin Halys | W 61 76 | L 64 57 36 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 57 67 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 61 62 64 | W 64 26 76 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 76 62 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Joao Fonseca
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Jaime Faria
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Joao Fonseca
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
May 31
Tommy Paul
French Open - Paris · 3rd Round
May 29
Hamad Medjedovic
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–65 matches
| Metric | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 69% | 65% |
| Sets won | 64% | 60% |
| Games won | 55% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ruud | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
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