Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jesper de JongPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Jesper de Jong have met 7 times since 2020; Jesper de Jong leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Guayaquil in 2020 on clay. On clay courts they are level 3–3. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Carabelli leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 7 sets to Jong's 9. Their most recent meeting: Jesper de Jong won at Nordea Open - Bastad (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | de Jong | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Jesper de Jong | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 13/21 | 44% | 11/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 6/22 | 30% | 8/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/43 | 42% | 22/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 27% | 9/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 46% | 13/28 | 35% | 6/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 14/16 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | 55% | 11/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 2, de Jong 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Jong
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,211 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jesper de Jong.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jul 19, 2025
Nordea Open - Bastad
C Clay · Semifinals
Oct 13, 2024
Villa Maria Challenger
C Clay · Final
Jan 3, 2024
Australian Open
H Hard · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jan 19, 2023
Piracicaba Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 12, 2023
Tigre 2 Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 25, 2021
Oeiras 4 Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Nov 2, 2020
Guayaquil
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Jong | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Jesper de Jong | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 63% | 10/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 25% | 4/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 19% | 3/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–4 | 9–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.47 | 2.10 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | -9.7% |
| Units P/L | -1.58u | -1.55u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,959 mi · 3,153 km | 1,731 mi · 2,785 km |
| Route | CAN → USA → MEX | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Carabelli has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Jong's 40%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Timofey Skatov | W 67 63 64 | L 61 46 36 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 67 26 | L 46 26 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 67 46 | W 76 36 57 64 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 76 16 57 | L 67 46 16 |
| Karen Khachanov | W 63 64 | W 75 57 62 67 62 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 61 36 67 | L 46 36 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 16 62 63 | W 46 76 76 |
| Hugo Dellien | W 64 62 | W 46 62 76 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 36 | L 62 57 46 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 75 61 | L 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Titouan Droguet
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 20
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Pablo Carreno Busta
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Marko Topo
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Adam Walton
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Hugo Gaston
Quebec City Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Dane Sweeny
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Alex Michelsen
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Sebastian Baez
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Vilius Gaubas
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 13
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–59 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 49% |
| Sets won | 47% | 46% |
| Games won | 48% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 3 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 3 | 3 |
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