Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jesper de JongPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Jesper de Jong have met 7 times since 2020; Jesper de Jong leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Guayaquil in 2020 on clay. On clay courts they are level 3–3. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Carabelli leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 7 sets to Jong's 9. Their most recent meeting: Jesper de Jong won at Nordea Open - Bastad (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | de Jong | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Jesper de Jong | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 50% | 12/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 36% | 9/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 43% | 21/49 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 29% | 10/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 31% | 4/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 70% | 14/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 76% | 16/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 57% | 12/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 2, de Jong 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Jong
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 255 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jesper de Jong.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jul 19, 2025
Nordea Open - Bastad
C Clay · Semifinals
Oct 13, 2024
Villa Maria Challenger
C Clay · Final
Jan 3, 2024
Australian Open
H Hard · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jan 19, 2023
Piracicaba Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 12, 2023
Tigre 2 Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 25, 2021
Oeiras 4 Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Nov 2, 2020
Guayaquil
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Jong | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Jesper de Jong | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 67% | 8/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–7 | 5–7 |
| Avg odds | 3.43 | 1.97 |
| ROI % | -47.1% | -35.4% |
| Units P/L | -4.24u | -4.25u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 793 mi · 1,276 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | FRA → POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Jong has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Carabelli's 40%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Rinky Hijikata | L 26 36 | W 76 36 57 64 63 |
| Federico Cina | L 36 26 | W 63 61 63 |
| Timofey Skatov | W 67 63 64 | L 61 46 36 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 67 26 | L 46 26 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 76 16 57 | L 67 46 16 |
| Karen Khachanov | W 63 64 | W 75 57 62 67 62 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 61 36 67 | L 46 36 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 16 62 63 | W 46 76 76 |
| Hugo Dellien | W 64 62 | W 46 62 76 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 36 | L 62 57 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
David Jorda Sanchis
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Harold Mayot
St. Tropez Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Andrea Guerrieri
St. Tropez Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Remy Bertola
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Samuel Heredia
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NED-COL 4-0 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Zizou Bergs
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Francesco Passaro
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Adam Walton
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–58 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 50% |
| Sets won | 47% | 47% |
| Games won | 48% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 3 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Jong |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 3 | 3 |
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